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<blockquote data-quote="Wil" data-source="post: 2805426" data-attributes="member: 3502">Err, while it does boil down to preference, the actual probabilities involved don't work quite like that.Example:While you have an 80% chance of rolling 16 or under on 1d20, there is an equal chance of chance of hitting any one number: 5%.&nbsp; So if you need to roll a 16 exactly, there is still just a 5% chance of doing so.&nbsp; On top of that, the die doesn't &quot;remember&quot; your rolls - while the probability of rolling (for example) 20 twice in a row decreases, there is still a 5% chance of rolling that 20 with each throw.&nbsp; In other words, the odds don't change of throwing 20, just the probability.The same holds true with die pool systems.&nbsp; Each d6 that you throw doesn't &quot;know&quot; what the other d6 is going to be, and the outcome of any one die has no influence on the others.&nbsp; There is a 1 in 6 chance of rolling any one number.&nbsp; But, because you're looking for each one to be higher than the others, it changes the probability of getting a particular number.&nbsp; Hence, when I'm throwing 3d6 and looking for the highest number, there is no longer a straight 16% chance of getting any one.&nbsp; It instead looks like roughly like this:1 - .5%2 - 3%3 - 9%4 - 17%5 - 28%6 - 34%So the difference winds up being that, yes, while there is an 80% chance of rolling 16 and under in a d20 system and a ~75% of rolling 4 and under in a d6 roll and keep system, there is still a 5% chance of hitting any one number on the d20 but the probabilities vary significantly in the roll and keep.&nbsp; While the first roll on d20 might be a 16, the next one is just as likely to be another 16, or a 1, or a 3.&nbsp; Rolling 3 dice and keeping the highest, there is more of a chance that both rolls will be a 4, or a 3 - the rolls are more predictable than with the single die.Sorry if it seems like I'm beating this into the ground, it's just I want to make sure that it's clear that while the results are the same, the path they take to get there is very different.&nbsp; Single die systems are much more unpredictable than multiple die systems - even rolling 2d10 as percentile has a small (rather flat) curve behind it.&nbsp; Try rolling, say, 4d6-3 a few hundred times and note the difference in the rolls you achieve than rolling a straight d20 and you'll see what I mean.</blockquote>

[QUOTE="Wil, post: 2805426, member: 3502"] Err, while it does boil down to preference, the actual probabilities involved don't work quite like that. Example: While you have an 80% chance of rolling 16 or under on 1d20, there is an equal chance of chance of hitting any one number: 5%. So if you need to roll a 16 exactly, there is still just a 5% chance of doing so. On top of that, the die doesn't "remember" your rolls - while the probability of rolling (for example) 20 twice in a row decreases, there is still a 5% chance of rolling that 20 with each throw. In other words, the odds don't change of throwing 20, just the probability. The same holds true with die pool systems. Each d6 that you throw doesn't "know" what the other d6 is going to be, and the outcome of any one die has no influence on the others. There is a 1 in 6 chance of rolling any one number. But, because you're looking for each one to be higher than the others, it changes the probability of getting a particular number. Hence, when I'm throwing 3d6 and looking for the highest number, there is no longer a straight 16% chance of getting any one. It instead looks like roughly like this: 1 - .5% 2 - 3% 3 - 9% 4 - 17% 5 - 28% 6 - 34% So the difference winds up being that, yes, while there is an 80% chance of rolling 16 and under in a d20 system and a ~75% of rolling 4 and under in a d6 roll and keep system, there is still a 5% chance of hitting any one number on the d20 but the probabilities vary significantly in the roll and keep. While the first roll on d20 might be a 16, the next one is just as likely to be another 16, or a 1, or a 3. Rolling 3 dice and keeping the highest, there is more of a chance that both rolls will be a 4, or a 3 - the rolls are more predictable than with the single die. Sorry if it seems like I'm beating this into the ground, it's just I want to make sure that it's clear that while the results are the same, the path they take to get there is very different. Single die systems are much more unpredictable than multiple die systems - even rolling 2d10 as percentile has a small (rather flat) curve behind it. Try rolling, say, 4d6-3 a few hundred times and note the difference in the rolls you achieve than rolling a straight d20 and you'll see what I mean. [/QUOTE]

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