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Did WotC underestimate the Paizo effect on 4E?
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<blockquote data-quote="Steel_Wind" data-source="post: 5266369" data-attributes="member: 20741"><p>Given how matters have turned out? I'm not sure, but my guess is that they would have gone with a continuation of the OGL, if for no other reason than to keep all the focus on 4E and not to give birth to a direct competitor. </p><p></p><p>But that's with PERFECT foresightedness. The real world doesn't work that way. They made the decision they made at the time they made it based upon reasonable expectations. Was it the wrong call, based upon what they knew at the time? </p><p></p><p>Evaluate the decision on that basis? No. I don't think so. You can blame them for the decision to publish so many 3.5 books so fast -- which lead to the push to release 4E much too early in the dev cycle...</p><p></p><p>But not on the whole OGL/GSL thing. I can't blame WotC for that decision. It seemed a reasonable one to make at the time, given the quality issues with 3.xx 3rd party material.</p><p></p><p>*shrug* In any case, there are no mulligans in the business world. You place your bet and spin the wheel and live or die by your business judgment. </p><p></p><p>Now - it turns out that a culmination of events and circumstances lead to the present market place and a real competitor now selling competitive, as opposed to complimentary products. </p><p></p><p>But could WotC reasonably see that coming? Maybe - but I think it's a weak <em>maybe</em>. I'm not sure that WotC can be blamed for their lack of "vision" -- though they are paying the price for it, just the same. </p><p></p><p>I don't think that was really the issue with slower adoption/conversion to 4E at the beginning of the game's release. Sure, I'll agree it may be an issue for some NOW, but THEN? No. I don't think the focus on release was in any manner on what 4E was and wasn't; or, as far as the overwhelming number of consumers were concerned -- what was in the OGL or the GSL (or wasn't).</p><p></p><p>I think the main issue that 4E had was that it was released two years too soon. There was going to be resistance in the marketplace whether it was the <strong><em>Best. Game. Evar</em></strong>.... or not.</p><p></p><p>Now, add the market resistance to <em><u>any</u></em> new edition, a perception that there was a real departure from previous rules, GSL terms which encouraged retention of rights under the OGL, Dragon/Dungeon cancellation -- and the prior licensing of same to Paizo + the Goodwill that went with it?</p><p></p><p>Add all that together -- yes -- maybe you could have seen <em>Pathfinder</em> coming and rethought the whole thing a little. </p><p></p><p>I still think that the major event in all of those circumstances was the timing decision of 4E. Take that away? I think matters change drastically. And that in turn stemmed from a decision to publish a vast amount of 3.5 material in a very short time period.</p><p></p><p>When whoever it was decided that one hardcover a month was the publication schedule in the 3.5 era? The die was cast at that point in time. Since then, we've been essentially playing out the consequences of that decision in the marketplace. </p><p></p><p>I put it to you that if 4E was being released next week? Even if it was in exactly the same form as it was released 2+ year ago?</p><p></p><p>My guess is that it would be received NOW <strong><em><span style="color: orange">much</span></em></strong> better than it was THEN.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Steel_Wind, post: 5266369, member: 20741"] Given how matters have turned out? I'm not sure, but my guess is that they would have gone with a continuation of the OGL, if for no other reason than to keep all the focus on 4E and not to give birth to a direct competitor. But that's with PERFECT foresightedness. The real world doesn't work that way. They made the decision they made at the time they made it based upon reasonable expectations. Was it the wrong call, based upon what they knew at the time? Evaluate the decision on that basis? No. I don't think so. You can blame them for the decision to publish so many 3.5 books so fast -- which lead to the push to release 4E much too early in the dev cycle... But not on the whole OGL/GSL thing. I can't blame WotC for that decision. It seemed a reasonable one to make at the time, given the quality issues with 3.xx 3rd party material. *shrug* In any case, there are no mulligans in the business world. You place your bet and spin the wheel and live or die by your business judgment. Now - it turns out that a culmination of events and circumstances lead to the present market place and a real competitor now selling competitive, as opposed to complimentary products. But could WotC reasonably see that coming? Maybe - but I think it's a weak [I]maybe[/I]. I'm not sure that WotC can be blamed for their lack of "vision" -- though they are paying the price for it, just the same. I don't think that was really the issue with slower adoption/conversion to 4E at the beginning of the game's release. Sure, I'll agree it may be an issue for some NOW, but THEN? No. I don't think the focus on release was in any manner on what 4E was and wasn't; or, as far as the overwhelming number of consumers were concerned -- what was in the OGL or the GSL (or wasn't). I think the main issue that 4E had was that it was released two years too soon. There was going to be resistance in the marketplace whether it was the [B][I]Best. Game. Evar[/I][/B].... or not. Now, add the market resistance to [I][U]any[/U][/I] new edition, a perception that there was a real departure from previous rules, GSL terms which encouraged retention of rights under the OGL, Dragon/Dungeon cancellation -- and the prior licensing of same to Paizo + the Goodwill that went with it? Add all that together -- yes -- maybe you could have seen [I]Pathfinder[/I] coming and rethought the whole thing a little. I still think that the major event in all of those circumstances was the timing decision of 4E. Take that away? I think matters change drastically. And that in turn stemmed from a decision to publish a vast amount of 3.5 material in a very short time period. When whoever it was decided that one hardcover a month was the publication schedule in the 3.5 era? The die was cast at that point in time. Since then, we've been essentially playing out the consequences of that decision in the marketplace. I put it to you that if 4E was being released next week? Even if it was in exactly the same form as it was released 2+ year ago? My guess is that it would be received NOW [B][I][COLOR=orange]much[/COLOR][/I][/B] better than it was THEN. [/QUOTE]
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