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<blockquote data-quote="Brother MacLaren" data-source="post: 3929457" data-attributes="member: 15999">By my calculations, fewer than 50% of NPCs should survive to advance to each higher level.&nbsp; If you assume 1% of the population is PC-classed, that means level-10 characters are 1-in-100,000 even at a 50% survival rate -- and in fact, it's likely to be less than that.I certainly wouldn't give much XP at all for &quot;encounters&quot; that had no real risk.&nbsp; For combat encounters, that means you need a real risk of death to earn XP; for social encounters, it could mean the risk of a tremendous loss of status, loss of all wealth, etc.&nbsp; You don't earn XP just for being yourself or doing your job.&nbsp; So consider NPC fighters.&nbsp; I envisioned their &quot;encounters&quot; as a series of battles between the human NPCs and, say, a horde of gnolls in nearby caves.&nbsp; Every group of 4 NPCs needs to defeat 13 gnolls of equal CR in order to advance.&nbsp; Say you have 1,000 soldiers broken into squads fighting a series of battles, each battle against a number of gnolls equal to the squad's size.&nbsp; And say that for each fight the humans have a 50% chance of winning, a 25% chance of losing but living, and a 25% chance of dying.&nbsp; At the end of things, 20% will have advanced to level 2 and 80% will be dead.Give the humans a 60% chance of winning, 20% chance of losing but surviving, and 20% chance of dying.&nbsp; At the end of things, 32% will have advanced to level 2 and 68% will be dead.Give the humans chances of 70/15/15, and 46% will survive to level 2.&nbsp; But really, all else being equal, they should have only a 50% chance of winning.PCs have probably a 95%+ survival rate to each higher level because of the following reasons:1) They almost always face foes against whom they have the advantage -- the CR system ensures this.&nbsp; FOUR level-1 PCs against ONE level-1 NPC (CR 1) is the norm.&nbsp; NPCs could not reasonably expect this.2) DMs are very generous with experience3) DMs are generally at least somewhat merciful (there may be luck points that NPCs don't have, or 1st-level fighter enemies NOT concentrating Rapid Shot attacks on the wizard, etc.)</blockquote>

[QUOTE="Brother MacLaren, post: 3929457, member: 15999"] By my calculations, fewer than 50% of NPCs should survive to advance to each higher level. If you assume 1% of the population is PC-classed, that means level-10 characters are 1-in-100,000 even at a 50% survival rate -- and in fact, it's likely to be less than that. I certainly wouldn't give much XP at all for "encounters" that had no real risk. For combat encounters, that means you need a real risk of death to earn XP; for social encounters, it could mean the risk of a tremendous loss of status, loss of all wealth, etc. You don't earn XP just for being yourself or doing your job. So consider NPC fighters. I envisioned their "encounters" as a series of battles between the human NPCs and, say, a horde of gnolls in nearby caves. Every group of 4 NPCs needs to defeat 13 gnolls of equal CR in order to advance. Say you have 1,000 soldiers broken into squads fighting a series of battles, each battle against a number of gnolls equal to the squad's size. And say that for each fight the humans have a 50% chance of winning, a 25% chance of losing but living, and a 25% chance of dying. At the end of things, 20% will have advanced to level 2 and 80% will be dead. Give the humans a 60% chance of winning, 20% chance of losing but surviving, and 20% chance of dying. At the end of things, 32% will have advanced to level 2 and 68% will be dead. Give the humans chances of 70/15/15, and 46% will survive to level 2. But really, all else being equal, they should have only a 50% chance of winning. PCs have probably a 95%+ survival rate to each higher level because of the following reasons: 1) They almost always face foes against whom they have the advantage -- the CR system ensures this. FOUR level-1 PCs against ONE level-1 NPC (CR 1) is the norm. NPCs could not reasonably expect this. 2) DMs are very generous with experience 3) DMs are generally at least somewhat merciful (there may be luck points that NPCs don't have, or 1st-level fighter enemies NOT concentrating Rapid Shot attacks on the wizard, etc.) [/QUOTE]

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