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Message: <blockquote data-quote="Puggins" data-source="post: 4129524" data-attributes="member: 12386">Sure, let's do that.  Your method is statistically inaccurate, since you're assuming that the displacement will always be needed on one of the rolls.If you don't mind, I'm going to use an 11+ to hit, since it gives us a nice, even 50% for calculations' sake.Shielding Smite:42.25% of the time (.65x.65), both attacks will miss, yielding no hits.12.25% of the time (.35x.35), both attacks will hit, yielding two hits.  Average hits yielded = 2 x 0.1225 = 0.245045.50% of the time (1-.4225-.1225), one attack will hit, yielding one hit. Average hits yielded = 1 x 0.4550 = 0.4550Average Number of hits over all probabilities = 0.2450 + 0.4550 = 0.7 hitsDisplacement:Displacement will negate half of one hit, since that hit will then have a 50% chance to miss.25% of the time (.5x.5), both attacks will miss, yielding no hits.25% of the time (.5x.5), both attacks will hit, yielding 1.5 hits.  Average hits yielded = 1.5 x 0.25 = 0.37550% of the time (1-.25-.25), one attack will hit, yielding one hit. Average hits yielded = 0.5 x 0.5 = 0.25Average Number of hits over all probabilities = 0.625, 11% less than Shielding SmiteIt gets worse as the odds of hitting go above 11+.  With two attacks, the break-even point is around a 7+ to hit.  Above that, Displacement is better.  Of course, as the number of attacks increase, the break-even point will start rising quite a bit.  Still, displacement is clearly better until at least 3 attacks start coming in.</blockquote>

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