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Message: <blockquote data-quote="Lobar" data-source="post: 3818686" data-attributes="member: 44684">Credit well deservedWell done, Ry. You may take some comfort in knowing that you are not the only idle gamer "statistician" out there, though I do my statictics for mental exercises while flying back from major Cons and by no means professionally. That being said, I have a few questions...Why third order? NdD+C (eg 6d8+10) is a multinomial plus a constant, so the extrapolation would be multinomial plus linear at higher than 2HD. I assume that third order gave closer approximations, especially since 'Heavy Monster' uses d12 whereas Other Monster uses d8. For datapoints, did you average all available (entered) data for a given CR or NPC level?Why didn't you smoothe your data?  Your table has a CR13 Bad Guy with a worse AC than a CR12...IMHO _don't_ add the intermediates (re 04-01-07) - your chart is fast and easy; our tendency to fill gaps would complicate it for the non-statistician. I would love to see your data - I might toy with it myself...I made a spreadsheet to do 'legal cheating' - mid-combat (but believeable) HP changing of bad guys if the combat gets too lopsided too early - like if the Bad Guys happen to crit twice in the first round - this can ratchet up the tension too high and break immersion for the players as they then scramble to pull out all the stops in order to not die. The worst correlation coefficient I had between my calculations and the average result was .991, and that was for 1HD (which is linear). email me off list? Skaldern @ Yahoo- Joe</blockquote>

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