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Message: <blockquote data-quote="devincutler" data-source="post: 7065827" data-attributes="member: 6684551">Averages are equivalent over the course of many damage rolls. They are not even close to so over, say, 3-6 damage rolls typical in many fights. I understand perfectly that there are other items of uncertainty that enter into the equation. Nevertheless, the fact that non critical damage has no deviation from the average is, de facto, more certain than not, and that makes damage too reliable. For example, let's say I am fighting a creature that makes two attacks that do 2d8+5 damage each. If I have 30 hp left, I know, for a fact, barring a critical, I can stand a full round of attack and not go down. That is an absolute certainty. If I am rolling, on the other hand, it is almost 50-50 I will go down. That is a huge...I repeat HUGE difference.You present the possible rolls as if their outcomes are equivalent, which is not true. Doing two crits on two attacks is a 1 in 400 chance which can effectively be ignored.Doing 1 critical is still only a 1 in 20 chance, which can also basically be ignored.Here's a statistical example:Assume I have 30 hp and the foe has two attacks that do 2d8+5 damage. Assume whatever my AC and its attack roll might be, it hits 50% of the time.What is my chance of falling if I am hit twice without criticals?With average damage, that chance is 0%.With rolled damage, what is my chance of standing at the end of my foe's attack?Answer = The chance of rolling 20+ on 4d8 plus is 37%Compare 0% with 37%. Huge difference in certainty.What's the chance of hitting twice? 25%. That is still 9% versus 0%. Huge difference in certainty.I won't go into the math needed to figure out the crits, but the chance of a crit on one of two dice is no more than 9 3/4%, so at best you close the gap by about 1%.</blockquote>

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