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Message: <blockquote data-quote="Charlaquin" data-source="post: 8285628" data-attributes="member: 6779196">There is uncertainty in any individual trial, yes, but unless you place a limit on the number of trials, there is no uncertainty in the actual outcome. Sure, it’s uncertain whether you will get heads or tails on any given flip, but those outcomes are inconsequential unless you tie some reward or penalty to it. If someone gives you a cookie if you get heads, it’s uncertain whether or not you will get a cookie... on any individual flip. But if nothing prevents you from flipping the coin as many times as you want, there is no uncertainty as to whether or not you will get a cookie. You can just keep flipping the coin until you get heads and get the cookie. To create uncertainty in the outcome, you either need to limit the number of trials allowed (i.e. “you can only flip the coin X times and if you don’t get heads in that many flips, you can’t have the cookie), or introduce a penalty for getting tails (i.e. “I’ll kick you in the shin every time you get tails.”) I find the latter to be the more interesting, because you have to weigh the potential benefits of getting a cookie vs. the potential risk of getting kicked in the shin. How many times are you willing to risk a 50/50 chance or getting kicked in the shin for a 50/50 chance at getting a cookie? That’s a far more interesting question than “will you get a cookie with a 50/50 chance?”EDIT 1: To drag this line of discussion kicking and screaming back to the topic, a third option would be if you get a reward whether you get heads or tails, but one reward is greater than the other. (e.g. “if you get heads I’ll give you a cookie. If you get tails I’ll only give you half a cookie.”) That would create uncertainty as to how much cookie you’ll get, and would be the equivalent of “fail forward.” Alternatively, you could say “If you flip this coin, I’ll give you a cookie. But if you get tails I will also kick you in the shin.” That introduces uncertainty as to whether or not you’ll get kicked in the shin, while making it certain that you’ll get a cookie, and would be the equivalent of progress with a setback.EDIT 2: Here’s another fun one: “every time you get tails I’ll take a bite out of the cookie. When you get heads I’ll give you whatever’s left.”</blockquote>

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