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Message: <blockquote data-quote="tetrasodium" data-source="post: 9659278" data-attributes="member: 93670">It looks like you are trying to map some of the percentages noted in <a href="https://www.enworld.org/threads/drawbacks-to-increasing-monster-ac-across-the-board.476248/post-9658975" target="_blank">post76</a>.  It's good that you don't appear to have made the common statistical mistake of multiplying the average damage across a statistically significant number of attacks (IoW hundreds)[Spoiler="why I say it is *usually* a mistake"]That "average" is only part of the story and not quite accurate though.  You need many many attacks before you can have enough to get an "average" for a lot of those.  Outside of scenarios like the thought experiment white room sarakokra vrs tarrasque&other endless solo fight battles there are almost no monsters with enough hp to establish those averages because there is typically other party members and the monsters die when they hit zero rather than sticking around to accrue enough statistical data for some kind of WoW raid stats application type output.[/spoiler]With that said, post 76 was not suggesting that switch, it was noting a potential instance of Garbage in Garbage out math assumptions that could have made the 65% hit rate before magic items and buffs seem reasonable. Diving deeper into the attack by attack 65%>42%>27%>17% chain that ends on the first miss in that post65...  It would be much more difficult to calculate because there were a lot of monsters intended to have some rock paper scissors style ac/save/hp/dpr slider roles in 3X, but given  the expectation of PCs regularly accumulating both +attrib and +mod weapons on top of (de) buffs I wouldn't be surprised if a 4 attack chain with the old full/-5/-10/-15 iterative attack penalty came in with an average that was  close enough to that 65/42/27/17 to make a comparison for discussion.Monster design was radically different between 3.x &5e when it comes to hp & it very much matters there.  In 5e the monster how is massively inflated because almost every attack is pretty much assumed to hit... in 3.x though it depends somewhat if the monster's ac was tuned to full or fractional BaB progression but was only the earlier parts of the chain expected to hit with the later being gravy that sped up the fight</blockquote>

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