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Excellent point on WotC mishandling
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<blockquote data-quote="Mercurius" data-source="post: 5369343" data-attributes="member: 59082"><p>Funny, but maybe true. I don't think WotC predicted the lack of enthusiasm that many would have for 4E; or rather, they didn't predict the <em>number </em>of people that would turn their back on 4E and return to 3.5 (and later Pathfinder).</p><p></p><p>Now a new (5th) edition would be a risk: It could either fracture the market even further, or it could bring people back together under one large umbrella. In one thread I posited that the percentage of D&D players was split roughly like so:</p><p></p><p>5-10% Old School editions (pre-3E)</p><p>35-45% 3.X/Pathfinder</p><p>45-55% 4E/Essentials</p><p></p><p>My guess is that WotC planned for a much better conversion rate to 4E, maybe 80+% of 3.5 players; obviously that didn't happen and what resulted was a disaster of near-epic proportions (of course they wouldn't tell us that). </p><p></p><p>But let's say 5E came up with something special that attracted everyone and enticed 80% of the 4E players, 50% of the 3.x players, and 20% of the Old School players; we'd have a spread of:</p><p></p><p>4-8% Old School</p><p>15-25% 3.x/Pathfinder</p><p>10-15% 4E/Essentials</p><p>50-70% 5E</p><p></p><p>That looks a bit better, but it still isn't all that great simply by virtue of the fact that the more editions there are, the more choices one has. I don't think this happens with other games, or at least there is more compatibility and "edition crossbreeding."</p><p></p><p>But again, my point: Even in a best case scenario 5E only recoups so much of the fracturing. It certainly could help a bit, but re-grouping existing D&D players under one banner is perhaps secondary to finding new players altogether, which is much harder, especially given the prevalence of computer games and the generational gap.</p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p>This is a key point that has been echoed throughout this thread and could use with another re-emphasis. D&D is not a book, not like <em>The Lord of the Rings. </em>One does not revise LotR, one repackages and reprints it, maybe with some books <em>about </em>it. But LotR itself is a classic and will sell tens, even hundreds, of thousands of copies, year after year. But D&D requires re-invention.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Mercurius, post: 5369343, member: 59082"] Funny, but maybe true. I don't think WotC predicted the lack of enthusiasm that many would have for 4E; or rather, they didn't predict the [I]number [/I]of people that would turn their back on 4E and return to 3.5 (and later Pathfinder). Now a new (5th) edition would be a risk: It could either fracture the market even further, or it could bring people back together under one large umbrella. In one thread I posited that the percentage of D&D players was split roughly like so: 5-10% Old School editions (pre-3E) 35-45% 3.X/Pathfinder 45-55% 4E/Essentials My guess is that WotC planned for a much better conversion rate to 4E, maybe 80+% of 3.5 players; obviously that didn't happen and what resulted was a disaster of near-epic proportions (of course they wouldn't tell us that). But let's say 5E came up with something special that attracted everyone and enticed 80% of the 4E players, 50% of the 3.x players, and 20% of the Old School players; we'd have a spread of: 4-8% Old School 15-25% 3.x/Pathfinder 10-15% 4E/Essentials 50-70% 5E That looks a bit better, but it still isn't all that great simply by virtue of the fact that the more editions there are, the more choices one has. I don't think this happens with other games, or at least there is more compatibility and "edition crossbreeding." But again, my point: Even in a best case scenario 5E only recoups so much of the fracturing. It certainly could help a bit, but re-grouping existing D&D players under one banner is perhaps secondary to finding new players altogether, which is much harder, especially given the prevalence of computer games and the generational gap. This is a key point that has been echoed throughout this thread and could use with another re-emphasis. D&D is not a book, not like [I]The Lord of the Rings. [/I]One does not revise LotR, one repackages and reprints it, maybe with some books [I]about [/I]it. But LotR itself is a classic and will sell tens, even hundreds, of thousands of copies, year after year. But D&D requires re-invention. [/QUOTE]
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Excellent point on WotC mishandling
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