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<blockquote data-quote="Navior" data-source="post: 1694812" data-attributes="member: 724">Jericho, your mistake is assuming that the first choice is irrelevent to the second. It's only irrelevent if you make your second choice randomly, but there's no need to make a random guess the second time round. There is a strategy that can be applied. (Just a note, I teach math, and I've used this exact problem before when teaching probability.)The first guess has a 2/3 chance of being wrong. One wrong possibility (never the one you chose, and never the correct one) is then removed. Given that you probably chose wrong the first time, you can use that knowledge to influence your second choice. The door you didn't choose and Monte doesn't eliminate has a 2/3 chance of being the right door. I posted a full breakdown of how this works earlier in the thread, and Pielorinho's 100 choices example illustrates the problem perfectly (it really is exactly the same problem, just with more choices for the first guess).</blockquote>

[QUOTE="Navior, post: 1694812, member: 724"] Jericho, your mistake is assuming that the first choice is irrelevent to the second. It's only irrelevent if you make your second choice randomly, but there's no need to make a random guess the second time round. There is a strategy that can be applied. (Just a note, I teach math, and I've used this exact problem before when teaching probability.) The first guess has a 2/3 chance of being wrong. One wrong possibility (never the one you chose, and never the correct one) is then removed. Given that you probably chose wrong the first time, you can use that knowledge to influence your second choice. The door you didn't choose [I]and[/I] Monte doesn't eliminate has a 2/3 chance of being the right door. I posted a full breakdown of how this works earlier in the thread, and Pielorinho's 100 choices example illustrates the problem perfectly (it really is [I]exactly[/I] the same problem, just with more choices for the first guess). [/QUOTE]

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