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Message: <blockquote data-quote="Pielorinho" data-source="post: 1696159" data-attributes="member: 259">Jericho, you say you don't know how to make it any simpler. The problem is, you're oversimplifying the question:  you need to make it more complex, so you don't lose information in the course of the simplification. I know you believe you're reasoning it through correctly, but this is a well-known mathematical problem, well-known because at first blush it flies in the face of intuition.  If you ask anyone with a 4-year-degree in mathematics, they should be able to confirm the solution as it's been given to you in this thread:  amongst mathematicians, the answer to this puzzle is uncontroversial (assuming, as we are, that Monty knows the location of the prize, and that his revealing of one door is affected by his knowledge). If you are consistently getting 1/2 results, then I suspect you're not doing the switch the way I'm doing it.  I played it by choosing door #1 to begin with every single time, and then switching to the other door every single time.  As expected, I won 2/3 of the time, and lost only when the prize started behind door #1, as it did 1/3 of the time.   Try it that way, maybe:  start always with door #1, and always switch on your second guess to the other door.  Try it, I dunno, 100 times, and see what your results are. Daniel</blockquote>