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Exploration Rules in latest playtest packet - is surprise to difficult to get?
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<blockquote data-quote="Obryn" data-source="post: 6122768" data-attributes="member: 11821"><p>With opposed rolls like this, any curve generated is incidental compared to the greater amount of variability you're entering into the equation. Instead of 1d20 with a 1-20 possible range, you're looking at (essentially) 1d20 minus 1d20, which has a range of -19 to +19, with 0 still occurring exactly 5% of the time. Yes, there's a peak in the middle, but it's no higher than your base rate of success under 1d20.</p><p></p><p><a href="http://anydice.com/program/21ae" target="_blank">http://anydice.com/program/21ae</a></p><p></p><p>I mean, let's take a pretty trivial example. I'm rolling 1d20 with a +5 bonus against a DC of 10.5 (so I need an 11 to beat it). If you want to simplify it, I am rolling 1d20 vs. a DC of (11-5) or 6. I "win" 75% of these rolls</p><p></p><p>If I'm rolling 1d20 with a +5 bonus against someone else with a +0 bonus, I "win" as long as... (my d20 - his d20) is -5 or higher, assuming of course that I win on ties. I "lose" if the d20-d20 comes up -6 or lower. Checking the math, this situation occurs <em>26.25%</em> of the time. If ties are handled otherwise, it gets funky.</p><p></p><p>Keeping down this path, if I'm rolling with a +10 bonus against someone with a +0 bonus, I "win" if the total is -10 or better. This occurs <em>less than 90% of the time</em>. It's an 11.25% chance I lose, which is hardly what I'd call "rare." <img src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/joypixels/assets/8.0/png/unicode/64/1f642.png" class="smilie smilie--emoji" loading="lazy" width="64" height="64" alt=":)" title="Smile :)" data-smilie="1"data-shortname=":)" /> (Compare to a static DC, where this would be 1d20 vs. a DC of [11-10] or 1, or a 100% chance of success.)</p><p></p><p>As far as I can tell, <em>at no point is d20-d20 better for a character with the higher bonus than a straight d20 roll vs. a static DC</em>. In other words, curve or no curve, it's substantially <em>more</em> swingy, not less.</p><p></p><p>Now, if you're changing things around so you're rolling (say) 2d10 instead of 1d20, the curve absolutely works in favor of the guy with a higher bonus. That's not what you're proposing, though.</p><p></p><p></p><p>Only if you're using a "one failure and you're done" model. In which case, every die roll does indeed add more chances of failure.</p><p></p><p>If you're using a model like 4e's skill challenges where you're counting successes vs. failures, the math works out differently.</p><p></p><p>-O</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Obryn, post: 6122768, member: 11821"] With opposed rolls like this, any curve generated is incidental compared to the greater amount of variability you're entering into the equation. Instead of 1d20 with a 1-20 possible range, you're looking at (essentially) 1d20 minus 1d20, which has a range of -19 to +19, with 0 still occurring exactly 5% of the time. Yes, there's a peak in the middle, but it's no higher than your base rate of success under 1d20. [url]http://anydice.com/program/21ae[/url] I mean, let's take a pretty trivial example. I'm rolling 1d20 with a +5 bonus against a DC of 10.5 (so I need an 11 to beat it). If you want to simplify it, I am rolling 1d20 vs. a DC of (11-5) or 6. I "win" 75% of these rolls If I'm rolling 1d20 with a +5 bonus against someone else with a +0 bonus, I "win" as long as... (my d20 - his d20) is -5 or higher, assuming of course that I win on ties. I "lose" if the d20-d20 comes up -6 or lower. Checking the math, this situation occurs [I]26.25%[/I] of the time. If ties are handled otherwise, it gets funky. Keeping down this path, if I'm rolling with a +10 bonus against someone with a +0 bonus, I "win" if the total is -10 or better. This occurs [I]less than 90% of the time[/I]. It's an 11.25% chance I lose, which is hardly what I'd call "rare." :) (Compare to a static DC, where this would be 1d20 vs. a DC of [11-10] or 1, or a 100% chance of success.) As far as I can tell, [I]at no point is d20-d20 better for a character with the higher bonus than a straight d20 roll vs. a static DC[/I]. In other words, curve or no curve, it's substantially [I]more[/I] swingy, not less. Now, if you're changing things around so you're rolling (say) 2d10 instead of 1d20, the curve absolutely works in favor of the guy with a higher bonus. That's not what you're proposing, though. Only if you're using a "one failure and you're done" model. In which case, every die roll does indeed add more chances of failure. If you're using a model like 4e's skill challenges where you're counting successes vs. failures, the math works out differently. -O [/QUOTE]
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Exploration Rules in latest playtest packet - is surprise to difficult to get?
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