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Message: <blockquote data-quote="Umbran" data-source="post: 1622847" data-attributes="member: 177">Well, the detailed specs of the entries are not generally open to the public, so I'm not really in a position to speculate much on what the machines can do, and how cheaply they can do it.For the contest - I'll be very, very surprised if anyone coems close to challenging Rutan and Scaled Composites for the prize.  Rutan is perhaps the best aeronautics/aerospace engineer in the world.  And he's repeatedly shown that he has a level head, good design, and knows how to run a testing program without busting a budget. As for future success of these vehicles for the public - well, all the X-prize entries are really good for is tourism.   They are not built to lift heavy payloads, nor do they go anywhere that's commercially useful.  So, convenience, safety, and fun for the tourist are paramount. To that end - any system that uses a parachute splashdown is a poor candidate for public use.  If the tourist is spending thousands of dollars on a thrill ride, they don't then want to have to spend hours getting plucked out of the water and brought back to land.  That's just boring.  Those systems like Space Ship One that land on a runway are far better for tourist application.  You can set up such a system near most airports that have good weather, which is great for a tourism application. My personal opinion is that the hybrid engine design of Space Ship One is very good for such applications.  It doesn't have nearly the punch of a more standard liquid hydrogen/oxygen rocket, but it doesn't need big punch to reach 100 km up with only a few bodies as payload, and the fuel is a darned sight safer to be around, and more easy to use than more conventional rocket fuels.That being said - any team trying a really radical approach is apt to meet defeat, both in the competition and in the private sector.  Really radical approaches are simply too unreliable and risky for investors and tourists.</blockquote>

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