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Message: <blockquote data-quote="tomedunn" data-source="post: 9284622" data-attributes="member: 7040979">As an addendum to that point, my analysis of <a href="https://tomedunn.github.io/the-finished-book/classes/xp-and-player-characters/#calculated-xp-by-class" target="_blank">XP thresholds for PCs</a> shows that martial classes, which typically don't have strong AoE capabilities, tend to have higher XP values for the purposes of encounter balancing. So for a martial heavy party, even if the encounter multiplier is underestimating the monster side of the equation, the XP thresholds for the PCs are likely underestimating their side of the equation as well.The model I developed is more of an approximation than a white room calculation. There are parameters in it that you can use to control the level of "slop" in the encounter, including how strong a group's AoE capabilities are as well as how efficiently they can deal AoE damage. That said, if you keep track of how much damage your party takes relative to their maximum HP for your encounters, you should be able to use the results to calibrate the model to your own party.The statistical nature of DnD combat means you'd need a pretty large number of encounters to do so accurately, which may not be practical for most DMs. My hope is that once DnD Beyond get's their maps and encounter tools fully operational that WotC will be able to collect that kind of data to better calibrate these kinds of systems in the future.</blockquote>

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