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<blockquote data-quote="GlaziusF" data-source="post: 4473072" data-attributes="member: 74166">No, you shouldn't.You might be, but you shouldn't.Why?What are the odds the orc's going to roll a 20, confirm the crit, and do enough damage to drop you? 1/32? 1/64? 1/128? To be generous?On the other hand what are the odds he won't?Back to HIP. The orc has a pretty much 0-bit chance not to drop you and a 6-bit, 7-bit chance to? So thinking about the consequences for what might happen if the orc drops you is going to start with 3 or 4 seconds of speculation - in fact, it's so rare that you may already have moved on to other trains of thought by the time you figure out how rare it is. People are bad at dealing with and planning for long odds. That's why they react so much better to their character's critical hits than critical fumbles (or enemy critical hits) - neither one is something they explicitly planned for, and a pleasant surprise is better than an unforseen complication. If something bad has a rare chance of happening, it's better to make sure it can be easily dealt with, because many people won't even consider the possibility, and those who do will have to grind mental gears for a while to give it proper weight. As far as Irontooth goes, well, the waterfall covers sight and the spray covers sound, and it's perfectly reasonable for the kobolds to be taking 10 on perception and completely failing to make anything out. That's why the guards are out there - Irontooth believes they're either capable enough to back off intruders or at least survive to warn him, and if somebody interrupts his skull-bashing practice for another damn stray horse he's going to use THEIR skull next.</blockquote>

[QUOTE="GlaziusF, post: 4473072, member: 74166"] No, you shouldn't. You might be, but you shouldn't. Why? What are the odds the orc's going to roll a 20, confirm the crit, and do enough damage to drop you? 1/32? 1/64? 1/128? To be generous? On the other hand what are the odds he won't? Back to HIP. The orc has a pretty much 0-bit chance not to drop you and a 6-bit, 7-bit chance to? So thinking about the consequences for what might happen if the orc drops you is going to start with 3 or 4 seconds of speculation - in fact, it's so rare that you may already have moved on to other trains of thought by the time you figure out how rare it is. People are bad at dealing with and planning for long odds. That's why they react so much better to their character's critical hits than critical fumbles (or enemy critical hits) - neither one is something they explicitly planned for, and a pleasant surprise is better than an unforseen complication. If something bad has a rare chance of happening, it's better to make sure it can be easily dealt with, because many people won't even consider the possibility, and those who do will have to grind mental gears for a while to give it proper weight. As far as Irontooth goes, well, the waterfall covers sight and the spray covers sound, and it's perfectly reasonable for the kobolds to be taking 10 on perception and completely failing to make anything out. That's why the guards are out there - Irontooth believes they're either capable enough to back off intruders or at least survive to warn him, and if somebody interrupts his skull-bashing practice for another damn stray horse he's going to use THEIR skull next. [/QUOTE]

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