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[For bigtino] Thread about heavy armor
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<blockquote data-quote="daniiren" data-source="post: 7254945" data-attributes="member: 6874256"><p>I want to contribute to this conversation (and the one on AP ammo, but that's another thread), and I think I have a few things to point out that haven't yet been mentioned. Full disclosure, I deal with statistics questions similar to this relatively frequently. I'm not a statistician and anyone who is will shudder in horror at my methods, but I ran a simple simulation and found some interesting results I think others may find worth thinking about. Until I get python to export my results in a convenient graphical format, all I can do is try to describe them (anyone know why matplotlib keeps saving blank figures?). When my code works I'll gladly share it for others to critique and modify.</p><p></p><p>A few people have done some detailed spreadsheets and calculated average damage outputs in various scenarios. I really don't want to rain on anyone's parade and please don't think I'm trying to denigrate or belittle you or your results, but we're doing a statistical analysis here, and the damage roll forms a distribution that has some average value but also a shape. The average doesn't tell the whole story. There is a lot to be learned by looking at the shape the distribution of damage rolls, and one of the principle things is also the range of likely damage values. The average in a given scenario (say you're using Deadly Strike and Aim, but they're in cover) is a value that depends on if they're using kevlar or a battlesuit (I forget the exact results off-hand), but there are a few things to note. I compared all results across sixteen different scenarios (combinations of Aim/High Ground, Deadly Strike, trade for damage, and Cover), and found that statistically we can't actually say much because the range of possible damage results is quite wide. There's often a difference in the average damage, but that difference often doesn't mean a lot. I'm still unsure about a few aspects to the analysis (I need to talk to a few people who know more statistics), but this is what I'm feeling.</p><p></p><p>A few other thoughts:</p><p></p><p>First, there is very often a significant chance that the attack deals no damage. This can be either because the attack misses or because the damage gets SOAKed. Which armour type gives the better chance of taking zero damage depends on the situation. This is obvious and has been mentioned. I bring it up for completeness.</p><p></p><p>Second, for attacks that do deal actual damage, without exception a target wearing kevlar will take more HEALTH damage on average than one in a battlesuit. Again, obvious and nothing new.</p><p></p><p>The parameter we're interested in is, how often and under what circumstances does wearing a battlesuit mean the wearer takes less damage than wearing kevlar, and should the costs/performances of these armours be modified to improve this?</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="daniiren, post: 7254945, member: 6874256"] I want to contribute to this conversation (and the one on AP ammo, but that's another thread), and I think I have a few things to point out that haven't yet been mentioned. Full disclosure, I deal with statistics questions similar to this relatively frequently. I'm not a statistician and anyone who is will shudder in horror at my methods, but I ran a simple simulation and found some interesting results I think others may find worth thinking about. Until I get python to export my results in a convenient graphical format, all I can do is try to describe them (anyone know why matplotlib keeps saving blank figures?). When my code works I'll gladly share it for others to critique and modify. A few people have done some detailed spreadsheets and calculated average damage outputs in various scenarios. I really don't want to rain on anyone's parade and please don't think I'm trying to denigrate or belittle you or your results, but we're doing a statistical analysis here, and the damage roll forms a distribution that has some average value but also a shape. The average doesn't tell the whole story. There is a lot to be learned by looking at the shape the distribution of damage rolls, and one of the principle things is also the range of likely damage values. The average in a given scenario (say you're using Deadly Strike and Aim, but they're in cover) is a value that depends on if they're using kevlar or a battlesuit (I forget the exact results off-hand), but there are a few things to note. I compared all results across sixteen different scenarios (combinations of Aim/High Ground, Deadly Strike, trade for damage, and Cover), and found that statistically we can't actually say much because the range of possible damage results is quite wide. There's often a difference in the average damage, but that difference often doesn't mean a lot. I'm still unsure about a few aspects to the analysis (I need to talk to a few people who know more statistics), but this is what I'm feeling. A few other thoughts: First, there is very often a significant chance that the attack deals no damage. This can be either because the attack misses or because the damage gets SOAKed. Which armour type gives the better chance of taking zero damage depends on the situation. This is obvious and has been mentioned. I bring it up for completeness. Second, for attacks that do deal actual damage, without exception a target wearing kevlar will take more HEALTH damage on average than one in a battlesuit. Again, obvious and nothing new. The parameter we're interested in is, how often and under what circumstances does wearing a battlesuit mean the wearer takes less damage than wearing kevlar, and should the costs/performances of these armours be modified to improve this? [/QUOTE]
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