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Message: <blockquote data-quote="General Barron" data-source="post: 2624786" data-attributes="member: 32468">Umm..... no. I understand what you seem to be saying: that for any given pass/fail dice roll, there is a certain percentage chance whether it will pass or fail. However, by "certainty" and "predictablity", others are referring to how "certain" you can be when you make a prediction like "I am going to hit this next attack".If your % chance to make that attack lies somewhere around the 50% range, then you can't make such a statement with any more than 50% accuracy (which can hardly be considered 'accurate', when there are only 2 possiblities). However, if you have a very high or very low percentage chance to hit (say, 5% or 95%), then you CAN make such an assertion with reasonable accuracy (95% accuracy in the above example).When rolling a 1d20, the probablity of getting any number from 1-20 is 5%. So if you say, "I'm going to roll a 10", and you roll a d20, you only have a 5% chance of being correct. However, if you, say, roll 3d6, your probability of getting a 10 is higher (12.5%).This 'bell curve' effect that everyone is talking about means that you are much more likely to get numbers close to the middle of the die roll's possible result range then you are to get numbers on the edges. The mean result from many rolls will remain the same (should be 10.5 for 1d20), however, the chance of rolling that mean on any given die roll varies depending on how many dice you are rolling.If the probability of getting this mean result were 100%, then the game could be considered "more predictable", and you would have "more certainty" when you made predictions like "I am going to hit". With 1d20, (mean result of many rolls == 10.5), your chance of rolling this mean is basically 10% (either a 10 or 11). With 3d6, the mean result of many rolls is also 10.5, however, the chance of rolling a 10 or 11 is 25%. Basically, you are more likely to get rolls in the 8-13 range with 3d6 than you are with 1d20, making things "more predictable", since the dice rolls are more likely to fall within a smaller range.I'd try to explain more, but hopefully you'll understand what we mean by "more predictable", and instead we can continue to discuss exactly what this would mean to the game.</blockquote>

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