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Message: <blockquote data-quote="ECMO3" data-source="post: 8618128" data-attributes="member: 7030563">Three of the hypothetical players we are looking at (single classed Fighter, Single classed Monk and Single classed Sorcerer) are 5th level in thier class and have a feat.  Those characters would all have the second chance feat even though you for some reason are not using the character I was asking about.I agree the tripleclass character does not have a feat and I did not use it or the 18 dexterity it gives in any of the numbers I presented.You are not running the actual character I am playing so it is not relevant to the discussion.Yes, so in tier 1 that is going to save about 5-30 damage on the spell slots and about the same on each use of ki.  That is a huge number.The fighter PC "presented" is not using my stats, is not using my race, and actually has nothing to do with the discussion.Against an opponet with a shield, if he hit with Booming Blade  and was also  using patient defense he likely would not stay in melee and would move away, trading the AOO (at disadvantage and with potential shield spell) for the BB movement damage.  He would  only use GFB if there was another enemey within 5 feet or some reason he needed to do fire  damage.You are wrong.  The chance of  rolling greater than a 9 with disadvantage is 36% (slightly better than 1 in 3) so what I highlighted in red above is factually incorrect.  Statistically the most likely scenario is BOTH attacks miss, so they should both miss. If you action surge and attack 4 times the most likely outcome is one of them will hit with disadvantage.  So with action surge you should hit once and cause shield to be cast.Now, we are talking about chance and there are lots of possible outcomes but those are what should happenA predetermined decision to use precision if you miss increases your base chance to 56% on a single attack without shield, but this gets tricky because shield comes AFTER a hit so precision comes before shield and a most of the time shield will cancel the precision if it is used after your roll.  Further if you roll high enough to hit without precision, and shield is used you can't go back and add precision.  So dealing with precision is statistically difficult unless you use a rules base for  it.  If you don't use precision you are less likely to hit and less likely to trigger shield.  If you do use precision the chance to hit agaisnt shield is almost identical to the base chance to hit without shield but you are more likely  to trigger shield.  If you are only* Note in the description I where I say "should" that refers to what is known in statistics as the "expected value"  it is  the most likely outcome from a random sample of a known population.Finally, shield is generally a much better defensive spell than silvery barbs for this purpose, but in this white room 1-on-1 battle being propsed silvery barbs would generally  be a better option on the second attack if shield is not already used and would give your opponent advantage on his turn.The AC in your example included a shield, so you don't  really have an option other than using a sword or throwing a weapon (and only getting 1 attack).   You could use an action to doff the shield.</blockquote>

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