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Message: <blockquote data-quote="Flamestrike" data-source="post: 8620891" data-attributes="member: 6788736">No that's not correct.You need to compound a 36 percent chance of hitting, with another second chance independent of the first one.A 25 percent chance (odds of rolling a 4 on a d4) increases to 50 percent when rolling 2d4 trying to roll a single 4.With a 36 percent hit chance (and two attempts to reach it, independent of each other) I have a higher chance of hitting you each round, than you do of hitting me with your single attempt at 45 percent.Read what I posted again. I did ZERO damage to you the first 2 of my turns (thanks to you using shield, and disadvantage from dodging) and I also burned a Sup dice in the process.Im not sure how I can do less than zero damage.Yes but if I roll a 14 or higher, its a moot point because I hit regardless of shield or anything else. I only need to factor in the odds of rolling at least a 10 (which triggers my use of precise strike). Anything more than a 13 just hits you without precise strike, so it's moot.My odds of hitting a base attack roll of 10 with disadvantage are 30 percent, each swing.So actually my Math is accurate, it's yours that is way off.To be more accurate:+7 to hit (Bow) at Disadvantage vs AC 16 (shield at 21):Roll 1-4 = miss. Roughly 27 percent of all attack rolls fall in this range thanks to disadvantage, and 100 percent of all rolls will roll at least a 1.Roll 5+ = hit base AC with precise strike, miss if shielded or not using precise. Roughly 64 percent of all attack rolls roll at least this number with disadvantage.Roll a 9 exactly: Hit your base AC but shield stops it unless I precise strike. Roughly 36 percent chance.Roll 10+ = hit even shielded AC, but requires precise strike. Roughly 30 percent of all attack rolls are at least this high thanks to disadvantage.Roll 14+ hit even shielded AC, not using precise strike. Only 12 percent of attack rolls fall in this category thanks to disadvantage.I presumed the worst in my math. Even if I use results of at least '9' for my base attack roll (and that's a 36 percent chance of happening on each of two swings, so odds are it happens at least once a turn) you're required to use shield to stop the attack.There are tactical variables of course. You're more likely to use shield if you get hit on the first attack than the second, and the d8 roll of the Precise strike dice is another variable (but note I intentionally play the odds and only use it when I need no more than a 4 to hit, unless desperate), but even with you dodging, and using shield, my odds of hitting you each round are actually around 30 percent per swing (I hit on a 10 or more using precise strike) and with two chances to land them, Im actually more likely than you to do so with your single attack.But still. I just assumed I missed all 4 attacks over the first two rounds thanks to you using shield and dodging, and even burnt a superiority dice in a failed effort to bypass it.And those are attack rolls at [+7, +7] so a greater than 50 percent chance of hitting and then +7(+1d8) and +7  so also a greater than 50 percent chance of hitting vs AC 16.Over the same two rounds, I averaged your damage, so it's the same as giving you 1 hit and 1 miss (which favors you seeing as your odds of hitting me at least once each turn are only 40 percent, so less than mine).On Turn 3 if you dodge again (burning your last Ki point) it's only two more attacks (but I likely hit you at least once in any event as I have 2 x 36 percent chances to do so). Unless you got really lucky and smacked me senseless in rounds 1-3 and my second wind failed me, I save Action surge (and at least a sup dice or two) for turn 4 when you're facing 4 attacks, at your base AC of 16.It's turn 4 where you likely die, even should you have full HP at that stage.</blockquote>

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