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good things, bad things and things you would change about 5e
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<blockquote data-quote="Blue" data-source="post: 7014894" data-attributes="member: 20564"><p>I draw the opposite conclusion from 2d6. It's MUCH swingier than d20, especially in a system aiming for bounded accuracy so results are near 50/50.</p><p></p><p>Let's say in a 2d6 system Adam is looking for a 7 or better. That happens 58% of the time, say it's about the same as a 9 or better on d20 which is 60% success. Or 10 or higher (55%) - doesn't matter.</p><p></p><p>Bob is like Adam but his player didn't optimize quite as hard. He's 1 point worse in modifiers. Bob needs an 8 or higher. That's only a 41% chance of succeeding. That's a 17% swing. On a d20 it would only be a 5% swing. It's more than three times as swingy right where you are aiming for. Even the slightest bit of better or worse building or small numerical modifier (like the Bless spell) will make a huge difference in character chances to succeed.</p><p></p><p>It gets too sensitive, where the slightest change int he numbers throws the probability of succeeding all over the place much more than a d20. It will have the exact opposite effect as what you are looking for if you. You've got the idea with the bell curve, but the issue is that bounded accuracy puts it on the bell curve right where you have the most variation because dice are granular. A bell curve will have a chance to get a 6.95 or a 7.12, all near a 7, but you can't roll that. The smallest granularity you have, +/- 1, is a really big deal near the middle.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Blue, post: 7014894, member: 20564"] I draw the opposite conclusion from 2d6. It's MUCH swingier than d20, especially in a system aiming for bounded accuracy so results are near 50/50. Let's say in a 2d6 system Adam is looking for a 7 or better. That happens 58% of the time, say it's about the same as a 9 or better on d20 which is 60% success. Or 10 or higher (55%) - doesn't matter. Bob is like Adam but his player didn't optimize quite as hard. He's 1 point worse in modifiers. Bob needs an 8 or higher. That's only a 41% chance of succeeding. That's a 17% swing. On a d20 it would only be a 5% swing. It's more than three times as swingy right where you are aiming for. Even the slightest bit of better or worse building or small numerical modifier (like the Bless spell) will make a huge difference in character chances to succeed. It gets too sensitive, where the slightest change int he numbers throws the probability of succeeding all over the place much more than a d20. It will have the exact opposite effect as what you are looking for if you. You've got the idea with the bell curve, but the issue is that bounded accuracy puts it on the bell curve right where you have the most variation because dice are granular. A bell curve will have a chance to get a 6.95 or a 7.12, all near a 7, but you can't roll that. The smallest granularity you have, +/- 1, is a really big deal near the middle. [/QUOTE]
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