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Message: <blockquote data-quote="Ancalagon" data-source="post: 7199724" data-attributes="member: 23">[MENTION=6795602]FrogReaver[/MENTION].  Here are some details about the impact of precision attackFirst, you need to know the odds of each number (1-20) being rolled with advantage.  The odds are as follows.  The chance of rolling 1 are 1/400.  The chance of rolling 2 are 3/400.  The chance of rolling 3 are 5/400.... all the way to 20, which is 39/400(btw, I *reaaalllly* recommend excel or similar program for this!)So let's say your character has a +4 bonus to hit, has advantage, and is trying to hit AC 16.   You need to roll 12 or higher.  With advantage, your chances of doing that are 0.6975  (I trust you all know how to do this math right?).  So if you roll 12 of above, no point of rolling a precision maneuver - you hit already!   If you rolled 3 or less, there is again no point - 3+8 =11, a miss, so why bother.  So it's only in that 4-11 range that you want to take that precision maneuver dice and add it to your roll.  If you roll a 3, you need an 8.  there is 1/8 chance of this helping you.  If you rolled a 4, you need a 6, so 2/8... all the way to 8/8 if you rolled an 11, where the precision dice is *guaranteed* to help you.  So what you do is you take your column of 1-20 numbers, the column of probabilities, and you line them up, and multiply.So if you roll a 3 - there is a 5/400 chance of this occurring, there is a 1/8 chance of the roll being an 8, you  multiply, so this "helps" you by a fraction of 0.0015625... not very much - but you repeat this process for 4, 5... all the way to 11, and then you add the fraction.  In this case, the sum is 0.16125.  This sum is then added to 0.6975,  resulting in a new to hit chance of 0.85875.  (edit:  I just noticed, this means your estimate of 15% was quite good... but please keep in mind that this varies based on the AC so if I had picked a different AC it would have been a bit different) Another way of looking at it is that with advantage, you had 0.3025 chances to *miss*.  And in this case, it turns out that hey, in this case   [MENTION=12731]CapnZapp[/MENTION] is correct, this is roughly reducing your chance of a miss by half... but this does *not* double your damage, it only goes from 0.6975 to 0.85875  of the "base" damage. So yeah, this maneuver helps a GWM warrior a fair bit...  BUT a warrior who is not using GWM can use that maneuver dice to increase his or her damage instead!  I've compared that in my previous posts.  The GWM still come out a bit ahead.  but it is NOT +10 damage per attack, not even close. I hope this answers your question.</blockquote>

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