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Message: <blockquote data-quote="Ashtagon" data-source="post: 4896596" data-attributes="member: 72335">If you attack bonus is +3 and his AC is 23, under raw you'd need a 20 (5%) chance. With this modified system, those work out as you having +3 on your roll and him having +13. A quick excel check makes that a 55/400 = 13.75% chance of a hit. Slightly better odds. This is compensated in an equal way by a reduced chance of hitting in the opposite case, where the target has a very poor AC.Once you account for the granularity involved as a result of the dice used, the adjusted odds are mathematically related to the size of the variance (1-20 under RAW, 2-40 in your modified system), although it is a bit too complex to describe simply.To correct my earlier post, an opposed check of (bonuses + 1d20) is mathematially the same as an unopposed check of (bonuses + 2d20 - 10). The only difference is more than one hand is rolling dice, which slows play slightly.Past 6th level, normal human ability goes out of the window and we enter the realms of heroic fiction anyway. I find it quite acceptable that Thrud the Barbarian should not be auto-killed in his sleep by a random peasant.To be fair, let's look at a 3rd level fighter under the same situation. he has about a 50:50 chance to shrug this off. In RP terms, we can describe this as a commoner sneaks up on you in your sleep and tries to slit your throat. But he does such a botch job of it that he manages to wake you in the process. You're badly wounded, just woken up, and he has a knife armed and ready to strike again.The more likely fiction scenario is a rogue with a few dice of sneak attack bonus damage. Dagger + crit + 3rd level rogue sneak = 2d4 + 2d6, average 12 damage. A DC 22 Fort save to avoid instant death, Assuming 14 or 15 Con, he needs to roll a 17, assuming his hp held out. he's not likely to survive the initial attack.Especially with your reduced hp totals.</blockquote>

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