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<blockquote data-quote="Fifth Element" data-source="post: 4204498" data-attributes="member: 48135"><p>Why? Why wouldn't you assign some probability to it and go from there? Assuming the probability is 100% will make your decisions very conservative, and maybe that's the way you want to go. But you seem to be advocating giving up a large chance of a more successful product because of a small chance of something out of your control happening.</p><p></p><p>And even if you assume the GSL will be revoked at the next edition change, doesn't that give you several good years (at least) to benefit from the GSL before it's revoked?</p><p></p><p>I guess it's my training in financial decision-making talking here, but I just can't see how you take one potential risk that exists and decide that it trumps all potential benefits, in all cases.</p><p></p><p>Say you do a NPV analysis and determine that, even with this risk, the value of using the GSL greatly outweighs not using is. How is it then "responsible" to not use the GSL when planning long-term (remembering that long-term in the RPG industry is a few years at most, I would suggest)?</p><p></p><p>Sometimes you have to take risks in business, in order to reap rewards. Deciding not to undertake a venture simply because there is risk involved is extremely conservative, and does not follow from systematic decision-making.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Fifth Element, post: 4204498, member: 48135"] Why? Why wouldn't you assign some probability to it and go from there? Assuming the probability is 100% will make your decisions very conservative, and maybe that's the way you want to go. But you seem to be advocating giving up a large chance of a more successful product because of a small chance of something out of your control happening. And even if you assume the GSL will be revoked at the next edition change, doesn't that give you several good years (at least) to benefit from the GSL before it's revoked? I guess it's my training in financial decision-making talking here, but I just can't see how you take one potential risk that exists and decide that it trumps all potential benefits, in all cases. Say you do a NPV analysis and determine that, even with this risk, the value of using the GSL greatly outweighs not using is. How is it then "responsible" to not use the GSL when planning long-term (remembering that long-term in the RPG industry is a few years at most, I would suggest)? Sometimes you have to take risks in business, in order to reap rewards. Deciding not to undertake a venture simply because there is risk involved is extremely conservative, and does not follow from systematic decision-making. [/QUOTE]
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