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<blockquote data-quote="olshanski" data-source="post: 4193644" data-attributes="member: 7441"><p><strong>My Prediction</strong></p><p></p><p>I am predicting that 4E is going to be closed. </p><p>No GSL.</p><p>Certainly no OGL or SRD.</p><p></p><p>Why exactly does WoTC need 3rd party developers to be churning out adventure modules and settings? These are all theoretically money-making things for WoTC to be doing. It seems clear that a majority of people (certainly according to EnWorld and RPG.Net polls) are going gung-ho for 4th edition. People love the changes.</p><p></p><p>If all of those people adopt 4E, and you have a pool of in-house writers and developers, why not just keep putting out your own supplements for 4E?</p><p></p><p>I don't know what the market was like when 3E replaced 2E, but my guess is that there were not as many 2E players, and that many old players were playing new systems. Making 3E open encouraged everyone to pay attention and got everyone on the same page. Now that everyone is there, for the moment at least they have a captive audience. </p><p></p><p>The bottom line is that it appears that 4E could be viable as a closed system. If it turns out not to be viable, <em>there is time to open it up later</em>. If it starts out open, you cannot really shut the door unless the agreement has a revocation provision... which is almost effectively a closed system, because any 3rd party developer will be wary of spending resources when they license could be revoked.</p><p></p><p>Now why isn't anyone from WoTC coming out and saying this? What good does it do to confirm or deny it?</p><p>4E is coming out very soon. Once its out, people will be spending money on 4E. </p><p>If WoTC confirms that 4E is closed, the 3rd parties and presumably some players will get back to work on developing and playing OGL stuff. There seems to be a narrow window yet where 4E could hemmorage a small number of customers. The smaller the window, the fewer customers to be lost.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="olshanski, post: 4193644, member: 7441"] [b]My Prediction[/b] I am predicting that 4E is going to be closed. No GSL. Certainly no OGL or SRD. Why exactly does WoTC need 3rd party developers to be churning out adventure modules and settings? These are all theoretically money-making things for WoTC to be doing. It seems clear that a majority of people (certainly according to EnWorld and RPG.Net polls) are going gung-ho for 4th edition. People love the changes. If all of those people adopt 4E, and you have a pool of in-house writers and developers, why not just keep putting out your own supplements for 4E? I don't know what the market was like when 3E replaced 2E, but my guess is that there were not as many 2E players, and that many old players were playing new systems. Making 3E open encouraged everyone to pay attention and got everyone on the same page. Now that everyone is there, for the moment at least they have a captive audience. The bottom line is that it appears that 4E could be viable as a closed system. If it turns out not to be viable, [I]there is time to open it up later[/I]. If it starts out open, you cannot really shut the door unless the agreement has a revocation provision... which is almost effectively a closed system, because any 3rd party developer will be wary of spending resources when they license could be revoked. Now why isn't anyone from WoTC coming out and saying this? What good does it do to confirm or deny it? 4E is coming out very soon. Once its out, people will be spending money on 4E. If WoTC confirms that 4E is closed, the 3rd parties and presumably some players will get back to work on developing and playing OGL stuff. There seems to be a narrow window yet where 4E could hemmorage a small number of customers. The smaller the window, the fewer customers to be lost. [/QUOTE]
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