Reply to thread

Message: <blockquote data-quote="Yaarel" data-source="post: 9291231" data-attributes="member: 58172">With regard to AI, the predictive models for what AI will do in the near future are grounded in hard science.Pretty much all of it relates to Moores Law and its extrapolations. The Law itself is simple. In the context of electronic equipment, Moore in 1965 noticed that number of transistors on an electronic chip doubles about every two years. Moores Law continues to remain true today. Meanwhile, new technologies bypass the limitations of earlier technologies. This means that the amount of information computation is accelerating geometrically. Information processing is getting faster and faster and faster.Here is a pretty good graph from Wikipedia, of Moores Law, last updated 2019. It shows the rate of acceleration. The microchips upto today 2024 remain on track at this same rate.<img src="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/0/00/Moore%27s_Law_Transistor_Count_1970-2020.png" alt="" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " data-size="" style="" />Visually this graph is linear, but look to the left at the numbers. More than merely geometric, the graph shows the information processing is ... accelerating ... at orders of magnitudes! Faster and faster and faster.Correlating with this information processing, is every kind of human information. Every branch of science is accelerating at this same rate.This acceleration of technology is relentless. Unstoppable.Next, is a graph that depicts the implications of the acceleration of technology. Notice roughly 2025, a computer is about as smart as a human, in other words the Turing Test. Roughly 2050, a computer is more intelligent than every human on the planet put together.<img src="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/333518196/figure/fig1/AS:962245399941167@1606428589944/Kurzweils-8-71-chart-of-exponential-growth-of-computing.png" alt="" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " data-size="" style="" />AI is unstoppable.We can ethically "steer" how the power of AI gets used.However it is IMPOSSIBLE to slow AI down.</blockquote>

Verification