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Hasbro Confirms New Unannounced Dungeons & Dragons Video Game in Development
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<blockquote data-quote="Ruin Explorer" data-source="post: 9515804" data-attributes="member: 18"><p>Fine re: not arguing. I will let you, when one reports on it - because I tend to prefer facts over complete and total speculation. Jason Schrier is highly likely to have some actual figures within a year. He's very good at extracting figures from BioWare staff.</p><p></p><p>I presume the $140m is a typo, given the actual figure the article guesses is about $120m to make and market (despite the lurid headline).</p><p></p><p>Further, I've tried to replicate their math re: sales and looked at their links when I went to look again, and I can't get the copies sold anywhere near as low - either there was an insane surge in sales since this was published 2 days ago, which doesn't seem plausible, or these figures are from quite further back than the article suggests, or they messed up. If we look at the actual sources they say they averaged the sales figures from they don't support their own math. They say they got an average 510k PC sales (by which they seem to mean Steam sales) - but the lowest figure of those sites they "averaged" for Steam sales is an estimated 636k (with a 50% margin of error!) and the only other site which has a sales guess at all has 753k Steam sales (which no confidence margin listed). The third site they say they used - Playtracker - doesn't have estimated Steam sales at all - it's unclear why they'd include that - I guess they didn't read carefully and confused the "players" there with "sales" - it's not the same thing. Playtracker doesn't estimate sales.</p><p></p><p>So if we average the actual sales estimates, we increase the baseline Steam sales guess (which they base literally everything else on - like I said this was guesswork x guesswork x guesswork), we're not looking at a 510k base, we're looking at a 695k base - that's nearly 40% higher. Then all the other sales figures go up by the same amount (see above), and suddenly we're looking at something rather less disastrous for the initial sales of an RPG.</p><p></p><p>I don't need you to respond to this, but I noticed the discrepancy and thought it was worth commenting on. I do commend one element of the article, where they did make an effort to rein in their speculation - they estimate the pre-production staff to be about 1/3rd of the production staff, and that's probably about right. However, the 300 staff figure is less certain (as they admit, again to their credit). There's a real mixture of dodgy speculation and errors, and attempts to speculate reasonably, then some bizarre editorializing to add some clickbait in there.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Ruin Explorer, post: 9515804, member: 18"] Fine re: not arguing. I will let you, when one reports on it - because I tend to prefer facts over complete and total speculation. Jason Schrier is highly likely to have some actual figures within a year. He's very good at extracting figures from BioWare staff. I presume the $140m is a typo, given the actual figure the article guesses is about $120m to make and market (despite the lurid headline). Further, I've tried to replicate their math re: sales and looked at their links when I went to look again, and I can't get the copies sold anywhere near as low - either there was an insane surge in sales since this was published 2 days ago, which doesn't seem plausible, or these figures are from quite further back than the article suggests, or they messed up. If we look at the actual sources they say they averaged the sales figures from they don't support their own math. They say they got an average 510k PC sales (by which they seem to mean Steam sales) - but the lowest figure of those sites they "averaged" for Steam sales is an estimated 636k (with a 50% margin of error!) and the only other site which has a sales guess at all has 753k Steam sales (which no confidence margin listed). The third site they say they used - Playtracker - doesn't have estimated Steam sales at all - it's unclear why they'd include that - I guess they didn't read carefully and confused the "players" there with "sales" - it's not the same thing. Playtracker doesn't estimate sales. So if we average the actual sales estimates, we increase the baseline Steam sales guess (which they base literally everything else on - like I said this was guesswork x guesswork x guesswork), we're not looking at a 510k base, we're looking at a 695k base - that's nearly 40% higher. Then all the other sales figures go up by the same amount (see above), and suddenly we're looking at something rather less disastrous for the initial sales of an RPG. I don't need you to respond to this, but I noticed the discrepancy and thought it was worth commenting on. I do commend one element of the article, where they did make an effort to rein in their speculation - they estimate the pre-production staff to be about 1/3rd of the production staff, and that's probably about right. However, the 300 staff figure is less certain (as they admit, again to their credit). There's a real mixture of dodgy speculation and errors, and attempts to speculate reasonably, then some bizarre editorializing to add some clickbait in there. [/QUOTE]
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Hasbro Confirms New Unannounced Dungeons & Dragons Video Game in Development
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