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Having Fun with AI (Optimized 20th level character vs. a Tarrasque et al)
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<blockquote data-quote="Mercurius" data-source="post: 9628754" data-attributes="member: 59082"><p>[SPOILER="Defeating Elminster"]</p><p>Elminster Aumar, the legendary archmage of the Forgotten Realms, is one of the most powerful and iconic characters in the setting. While his exact abilities fluctuate depending on the source material (novels, game supplements, or campaign settings), he is generally depicted as a <strong>20th-level wizard </strong>with additional mythic or semi-divine powers due to his connection to Mystra, the goddess of magic. This makes him an incredibly formidable opponent in one-on-one combat.</p><p></p><p></p><p>To determine which characters or monsters have a <strong>50% or better chance of defeating Elminster </strong>, we need to consider both his strengths and weaknesses:</p><p></p><p></p><p>[HR][/HR]</p><h3><strong>1. Elminster's Strengths</strong></h3> <ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul"><strong>High-Level Wizard </strong>: As a 20th-level wizard, Elminster has access to all 9th-level spells, including devastating options like <em>Meteor Swarm </em>, <em>Time Stop </em>, and <em>Wish </em>.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul"><strong>Mythic Powers </strong>: His bond with Mystra grants him enhanced magical abilities, such as immunity to certain effects, the ability to regenerate spell slots, or even resurrection after death.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul"><strong>Legendary Items </strong>: Elminster wields powerful artifacts, such as the <strong>Moonblade </strong>(a sentient magical sword) and the <strong>Emerald Enigma </strong>(a staff that amplifies his spellcasting).</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul"><strong>Experience </strong>: Centuries of adventuring and political intrigue make him a master tactician.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul"><strong>Immunities/Resistances </strong>: Depending on the source, Elminster may have resistances to certain damage types and immunities to common conditions like charm or fear.</li> </ul><p></p><p>[HR][/HR]</p><h3><strong>2. Elminster's Weaknesses</strong></h3> <ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul"><strong>Reliance on Magic </strong>: Like most wizards, Elminster is squishy in melee combat, with relatively low hit points (~80–100) and no natural armor.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul"><strong>Concentration Spells </strong>: Many of his powerful spells require concentration, which can be disrupted by attacks or environmental hazards.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul"><strong>Predictability </strong>: His reliance on high-level spells like <em>Meteor Swarm </em>or <em>Time Stop </em>can be countered by creatures with Legendary Resistance or anti-magic abilities.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul"><strong>Age and Hubris </strong>: In some depictions, Elminster’s confidence in his own power can lead to mistakes in combat.</li> </ul><p></p><p>[HR][/HR]</p><h3><strong>3. Characters/Monsters with a 50%+ Chance of Defeating Elminster</strong></h3><h4><strong>A. Deities and Near-Divine Beings</strong></h4> <ol> <li data-xf-list-type="ol"><strong>Mystra (Goddess of Magic)</strong><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul"><strong>Why </strong>: As Elminster’s patron deity, Mystra could easily overpower him if she chose to revoke her favor or directly intervene.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul"><strong>Win Probability </strong>: ~99%.</li> </ul></li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol"><strong>Ao (Overgod of the Forgotten Realms)</strong><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul"><strong>Why </strong>: Ao oversees all deities and mortals in the Realms. Elminster would stand no chance against his omnipotence.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul"><strong>Win Probability </strong>: ~100%.</li> </ul></li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol"><strong>The Simbul (Alustriel of Silverymoon)</strong><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul"><strong>Why </strong>: The Simbul, another Chosen of Mystra, rivals Elminster in power and magical ability. Their battle would likely come down to strategy and resourcefulness.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul"><strong>Win Probability </strong>: ~50%.</li> </ul></li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol"><strong>Vecna (God of Secrets)</strong><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul"><strong>Why </strong>: Vecna’s mastery of divine and arcane magic, combined with his ability to manipulate secrets and vulnerabilities, gives him an edge over Elminster.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul"><strong>Win Probability </strong>: ~70%.</li> </ul></li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol"><strong>Asmodeus (Archdevil and Ruler of the Nine Hells)</strong><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul"><strong>Why </strong>: Asmodeus’ overwhelming power, mastery of infernal magic, and cunning nature make him a deadly opponent for any mortal, even Elminster.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul"><strong>Win Probability </strong>: ~80%.</li> </ul></li> </ol><p></p><p>[HR][/HR]</p><h4><strong>B. Archmages and High-Level Spellcasters</strong></h4> <ol> <li data-xf-list-type="ol"><strong>Khelben "Blackstaff" Arunsun</strong><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul"><strong>Why </strong>: Khelben was another of the Chosen of Mystra and one of Faerûn’s most powerful wizards. A duel between him and Elminster would be evenly matched.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul"><strong>Win Probability </strong>: ~50%.</li> </ul></li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol"><strong>Szass Tam (Zulkir of Necromancy in Thay)</strong><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul"><strong>Why </strong>: Szass Tam’s mastery of necromancy and his lichdom give him significant advantages, including immortality and resistance to many forms of harm.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul"><strong>Win Probability </strong>: ~60%.</li> </ul></li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol"><strong>Halaster Blackcloak (Mad Mage of Undermountain)</strong><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul"><strong>Why </strong>: Halaster’s unpredictable nature and mastery of wild magic make him a chaotic but dangerous foe. His control over Undermountain provides a tactical advantage.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul"><strong>Win Probability </strong>: ~55%.</li> </ul></li> </ol><p></p><p>[HR][/HR]</p><h4><strong>C. Monsters</strong></h4> <ol> <li data-xf-list-type="ol"><strong>Ancient Gold Dragon</strong><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul"><strong>Why </strong>: With its immense durability, spellcasting abilities, and breath weapon, an Ancient Gold Dragon could overwhelm Elminster before he exhausts his resources.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul"><strong>Win Probability </strong>: ~60%.</li> </ul></li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol"><strong>Tarrasque</strong><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul"><strong>Why </strong>: The Tarrasque’s sheer size, regeneration, and Siege Monster trait make it nearly impossible for Elminster to defeat without specific preparations (e.g., <em>Wish </em>).</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul"><strong>Win Probability </strong>: ~70%.</li> </ul></li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol"><strong>Solar (CR 21)</strong><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul"><strong>Why </strong>: A Solar’s combination of high AC, immunities, and radiant damage makes it resistant to most of Elminster’s spells. Its multiattack and legendary actions allow it to close the distance quickly.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul"><strong>Win Probability </strong>: ~65%.</li> </ul></li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol"><strong>Balor (Demon Lord)</strong><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul"><strong>Why </strong>: A Balor’s resistance to spells, mobility, and devastating attacks (e.g., Death Throes) make it a deadly opponent for any mortal spellcaster.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul"><strong>Win Probability </strong>: ~60%.</li> </ul></li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol"><strong>Mind Flayer Elder Brain</strong><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul"><strong>Why </strong>: An Elder Brain’s psionic abilities, including telepathy and mind control, could neutralize Elminster before he acts.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul"><strong>Win Probability </strong>: ~55%.</li> </ul></li> </ol><p></p><p>[HR][/HR]</p><h4><strong>D. Artifacts and Constructs</strong></h4> <ol> <li data-xf-list-type="ol"><strong>Iron Golem (CR 16)</strong><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul"><strong>Why </strong>: An Iron Golem’s immunity to magic and resistance to physical attacks make it a surprisingly effective counter to Elminster’s spellcasting.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul"><strong>Win Probability </strong>: ~50%.</li> </ul></li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol"><strong>Atropal (CR 18)</strong><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul"><strong>Why </strong>: An Atropal’s necrotic aura and energy drain abilities could incapacitate Elminster before he defeats it.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul"><strong>Win Probability </strong>: ~55%.</li> </ul></li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol"><strong>Demilich (CR 18)</strong><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul"><strong>Why </strong>: A Demilich’s immunity to most damage types and devastating Howl effects give it a strong chance of neutralizing Elminster.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul"><strong>Win Probability </strong>: ~50%.</li> </ul></li> </ol><p></p><p>[HR][/HR]</p><h3><strong>4. Key Factors Influencing Combat</strong></h3> <ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul"><strong>Preparation </strong>: Elminster’s chances improve significantly if he has time to prepare spells, set up wards, or summon allies.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul"><strong>Environment </strong>: A battlefield under Elminster’s control (e.g., Shadowdale or his tower) tilts the odds in his favor.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul"><strong>Surprise </strong>: Ambushes or unexpected encounters reduce Elminster’s ability to leverage his full power.</li> </ul><p>[/SPOILER]</p><p></p><p>This one made me mentally chuckle:</p><p></p><p><strong>Ao (Overgod of the Forgotten Realms)</strong></p><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul"><strong>Why </strong>: Ao oversees all deities and mortals in the Realms. Elminster would stand no chance against his omnipotence.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul"><strong>Win Probability </strong>: ~100%.</li> </ul></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Mercurius, post: 9628754, member: 59082"] [SPOILER="Defeating Elminster"] Elminster Aumar, the legendary archmage of the Forgotten Realms, is one of the most powerful and iconic characters in the setting. While his exact abilities fluctuate depending on the source material (novels, game supplements, or campaign settings), he is generally depicted as a [B]20th-level wizard [/B]with additional mythic or semi-divine powers due to his connection to Mystra, the goddess of magic. This makes him an incredibly formidable opponent in one-on-one combat. To determine which characters or monsters have a [B]50% or better chance of defeating Elminster [/B], we need to consider both his strengths and weaknesses: [HR][/HR] [HEADING=2][B]1. Elminster's Strengths[/B][/HEADING] [LIST] [*][B]High-Level Wizard [/B]: As a 20th-level wizard, Elminster has access to all 9th-level spells, including devastating options like [I]Meteor Swarm [/I], [I]Time Stop [/I], and [I]Wish [/I]. [*][B]Mythic Powers [/B]: His bond with Mystra grants him enhanced magical abilities, such as immunity to certain effects, the ability to regenerate spell slots, or even resurrection after death. [*][B]Legendary Items [/B]: Elminster wields powerful artifacts, such as the [B]Moonblade [/B](a sentient magical sword) and the [B]Emerald Enigma [/B](a staff that amplifies his spellcasting). [*][B]Experience [/B]: Centuries of adventuring and political intrigue make him a master tactician. [*][B]Immunities/Resistances [/B]: Depending on the source, Elminster may have resistances to certain damage types and immunities to common conditions like charm or fear. [/LIST] [HR][/HR] [HEADING=2][B]2. Elminster's Weaknesses[/B][/HEADING] [LIST] [*][B]Reliance on Magic [/B]: Like most wizards, Elminster is squishy in melee combat, with relatively low hit points (~80–100) and no natural armor. [*][B]Concentration Spells [/B]: Many of his powerful spells require concentration, which can be disrupted by attacks or environmental hazards. [*][B]Predictability [/B]: His reliance on high-level spells like [I]Meteor Swarm [/I]or [I]Time Stop [/I]can be countered by creatures with Legendary Resistance or anti-magic abilities. [*][B]Age and Hubris [/B]: In some depictions, Elminster’s confidence in his own power can lead to mistakes in combat. [/LIST] [HR][/HR] [HEADING=2][B]3. Characters/Monsters with a 50%+ Chance of Defeating Elminster[/B][/HEADING] [HEADING=3][B]A. Deities and Near-Divine Beings[/B][/HEADING] [LIST=1] [*][B]Mystra (Goddess of Magic)[/B] [LIST] [*][B]Why [/B]: As Elminster’s patron deity, Mystra could easily overpower him if she chose to revoke her favor or directly intervene. [*][B]Win Probability [/B]: ~99%. [/LIST] [*][B]Ao (Overgod of the Forgotten Realms)[/B] [LIST] [*][B]Why [/B]: Ao oversees all deities and mortals in the Realms. Elminster would stand no chance against his omnipotence. [*][B]Win Probability [/B]: ~100%. [/LIST] [*][B]The Simbul (Alustriel of Silverymoon)[/B] [LIST] [*][B]Why [/B]: The Simbul, another Chosen of Mystra, rivals Elminster in power and magical ability. Their battle would likely come down to strategy and resourcefulness. [*][B]Win Probability [/B]: ~50%. [/LIST] [*][B]Vecna (God of Secrets)[/B] [LIST] [*][B]Why [/B]: Vecna’s mastery of divine and arcane magic, combined with his ability to manipulate secrets and vulnerabilities, gives him an edge over Elminster. [*][B]Win Probability [/B]: ~70%. [/LIST] [*][B]Asmodeus (Archdevil and Ruler of the Nine Hells)[/B] [LIST] [*][B]Why [/B]: Asmodeus’ overwhelming power, mastery of infernal magic, and cunning nature make him a deadly opponent for any mortal, even Elminster. [*][B]Win Probability [/B]: ~80%. [/LIST] [/LIST] [HR][/HR] [HEADING=3][B]B. Archmages and High-Level Spellcasters[/B][/HEADING] [LIST=1] [*][B]Khelben "Blackstaff" Arunsun[/B] [LIST] [*][B]Why [/B]: Khelben was another of the Chosen of Mystra and one of Faerûn’s most powerful wizards. A duel between him and Elminster would be evenly matched. [*][B]Win Probability [/B]: ~50%. [/LIST] [*][B]Szass Tam (Zulkir of Necromancy in Thay)[/B] [LIST] [*][B]Why [/B]: Szass Tam’s mastery of necromancy and his lichdom give him significant advantages, including immortality and resistance to many forms of harm. [*][B]Win Probability [/B]: ~60%. [/LIST] [*][B]Halaster Blackcloak (Mad Mage of Undermountain)[/B] [LIST] [*][B]Why [/B]: Halaster’s unpredictable nature and mastery of wild magic make him a chaotic but dangerous foe. His control over Undermountain provides a tactical advantage. [*][B]Win Probability [/B]: ~55%. [/LIST] [/LIST] [HR][/HR] [HEADING=3][B]C. Monsters[/B][/HEADING] [LIST=1] [*][B]Ancient Gold Dragon[/B] [LIST] [*][B]Why [/B]: With its immense durability, spellcasting abilities, and breath weapon, an Ancient Gold Dragon could overwhelm Elminster before he exhausts his resources. [*][B]Win Probability [/B]: ~60%. [/LIST] [*][B]Tarrasque[/B] [LIST] [*][B]Why [/B]: The Tarrasque’s sheer size, regeneration, and Siege Monster trait make it nearly impossible for Elminster to defeat without specific preparations (e.g., [I]Wish [/I]). [*][B]Win Probability [/B]: ~70%. [/LIST] [*][B]Solar (CR 21)[/B] [LIST] [*][B]Why [/B]: A Solar’s combination of high AC, immunities, and radiant damage makes it resistant to most of Elminster’s spells. Its multiattack and legendary actions allow it to close the distance quickly. [*][B]Win Probability [/B]: ~65%. [/LIST] [*][B]Balor (Demon Lord)[/B] [LIST] [*][B]Why [/B]: A Balor’s resistance to spells, mobility, and devastating attacks (e.g., Death Throes) make it a deadly opponent for any mortal spellcaster. [*][B]Win Probability [/B]: ~60%. [/LIST] [*][B]Mind Flayer Elder Brain[/B] [LIST] [*][B]Why [/B]: An Elder Brain’s psionic abilities, including telepathy and mind control, could neutralize Elminster before he acts. [*][B]Win Probability [/B]: ~55%. [/LIST] [/LIST] [HR][/HR] [HEADING=3][B]D. Artifacts and Constructs[/B][/HEADING] [LIST=1] [*][B]Iron Golem (CR 16)[/B] [LIST] [*][B]Why [/B]: An Iron Golem’s immunity to magic and resistance to physical attacks make it a surprisingly effective counter to Elminster’s spellcasting. [*][B]Win Probability [/B]: ~50%. [/LIST] [*][B]Atropal (CR 18)[/B] [LIST] [*][B]Why [/B]: An Atropal’s necrotic aura and energy drain abilities could incapacitate Elminster before he defeats it. [*][B]Win Probability [/B]: ~55%. [/LIST] [*][B]Demilich (CR 18)[/B] [LIST] [*][B]Why [/B]: A Demilich’s immunity to most damage types and devastating Howl effects give it a strong chance of neutralizing Elminster. [*][B]Win Probability [/B]: ~50%. [/LIST] [/LIST] [HR][/HR] [HEADING=2][B]4. Key Factors Influencing Combat[/B][/HEADING] [LIST] [*][B]Preparation [/B]: Elminster’s chances improve significantly if he has time to prepare spells, set up wards, or summon allies. [*][B]Environment [/B]: A battlefield under Elminster’s control (e.g., Shadowdale or his tower) tilts the odds in his favor. [*][B]Surprise [/B]: Ambushes or unexpected encounters reduce Elminster’s ability to leverage his full power. [/LIST] [/SPOILER] This one made me mentally chuckle: [B]Ao (Overgod of the Forgotten Realms)[/B] [LIST] [*][B]Why [/B]: Ao oversees all deities and mortals in the Realms. Elminster would stand no chance against his omnipotence. [*][B]Win Probability [/B]: ~100%. [/LIST] [/QUOTE]
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