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Message: <blockquote data-quote="amnuxoll" data-source="post: 4391908" data-attributes="member: 13028">So, this may be a given to you folks already but I think this is worthspelling out explicitly:  hit probability is a fundamental part of the game and the way 4e handles it has big and broad implications for play.Consider, if you will, a 1st level fighter.  You give him an 18strength.  That combined with the proficiency bonus for his longswordgives him a +7 to attacks.What are the odds of your 1st level fighter hitting a bad guy(vs. AC)?  Well if you consider that most monsters will be about 2-3levels higher and then you consult the DMG at the bottom of p.184 youcan get this answer: about 50%.Now as the fighter gains levels he is sure to increase his Strengthability at every opportunity.  He purchases magical weapons with thelargest enhancement bonus he has access to.  Basically, any reasonableopportunity to increase your normal attack bonus he does it.   You playthis PC all the way to 30th level.What are the odds of your 10th level fighter hitting a bad guy?Answer:  About 50%.How about 20th level? ... 50%30th level? ... 50%This isn't a huge surprise.  It's what the WotC folks have beentelling us.  But I think it's worth considering the implications, thebiggest of which is that PCs whose class grants powers that usemultiple attack modifiers are actually at a _disadvantage_.Example:  PaladinAbout 1/2 the paladin powers are Str-based and the other half areCha-based.  Obviously, you're going to want to build a paladin tofocus on one or the other.  However, given the data above what youshould realize is that "emphasize" is the wrong word.  You're going towant to take nothing but one or the other.Consider a 1st level Cha-based paladin.  Like our fighter (above) hetakes an 18 in Cha to start.  Let's say he also puts some points intoStr giving him a 13.  (Paladins also need Con and Wis so a 13 Str is alikely reasonable start with a 22 point buy.)  At first level his oddsof hitting are as follows:Cha-based attack:  ~50%Str-based attack:  ~40%Not so bad, right?As the paladin gains levels you dutifully increase your Cha at everyopportunity and buy weapons with the highest enhancement accessible.But you obviously can't afford to bump Str every time.  So you bump itabout every other opportunity.What are the odds of your 30th level fighter hitting a bad guy?Cha-based attack:  ~50%Str-based attack:  ~25%See what happened?  Every time you neglected Str you _PERMANENTLY_lost a 5% attack probability.  You'll never get it back.  Even if youdo everything in your power to increase your PC's Str from here onout, the best you can do is maintain your now dismal 1-in-4 odds.  Idon't know about you, but in the middle of a battle I don't likemissing 3 out of 4 times.The impact of this mechanic is really broad.  Suddenly, the importanceof the Reliable keyword on the fighter's daily powers becomesimminently valuable...perhaps even too powerful!  Suddenly, theadvantage of the Elven Precision racial ability is very clear.Suddenly, small tactical bonuses to attack rolls become reallyimportant.  Want to build a PC whose attacks hit better than 60% ofthe time?  Very difficult.Consider the implications for multiclassing: If you use multiclassingfeats to access powers that you wouldn't normally get, you'd better becareful to pick powers that use your best stat for their attack (oraren't an attack all).  Otherwise, it's likely to be a wasted feat as yourhit probability will ruin it for you.This has an impact on magic items too.  Did your your DM grant a nobletitle and the opportunity to fix up a your very own castle?  To affordit, all you have to do is delay the purchase of your next magic weaponfor a few levels...  It turns out that castle is a lot more expensivethan you thought.  To maintain your combat ability you *must* buy thebest weapon you can as soon as you can.  One slip, and you will payfor it for the rest of your PC's career.People have been talking confidently about how Cha-based paladins aresuperior to Str-based.  This example illustrates why they really areabout equally good: opportunity attacks.  A high level, Cha-basedpaladin is unlikely to hit with OAs.  This not only reduces theiroverall damage output but, more importantly, it removes their abilityto play the role of Defender.  A canny DM will simple take the OAknowing that it's likely to miss.  And the baddies will walk right upto the squishy bits of your party.  Sure, they _may_ get a -2 to theattack and some damage due to the Divine Challenge, but that's not abad price to pay for cutting down your party's controller in round 2.Non-martial characters have it even worse.  They lack the weaponproficiency bonus to their attacks so they have to work equally hardto maintain a lower probability.  They are less likely to get bonusesfrom tactical situations (e.g., prone or flank).  They are more likelyto have multiple powers that use different ability scores.  They aremore likely to suffer from MAD.  They also have many other"opportunities" (i.e., temptations) to spend their gp on rituals andmagic items other than their implement and thus _permanently_ sacrificehit probability.So, I hate sounding like a munchkin.  (And this whole post sure makesme sound like one.)  But I think this is a subtle, but criticallyimportant aspect of the new rules that needed to be spelled outexplicitly.:AMN:</blockquote>

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