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<blockquote data-quote="Shiroiken" data-source="post: 7143557" data-attributes="member: 6775477">Published adventure always run afoul of variance in groups, from the DMs to the players. That's why DMing is more art than science. If I were to try to crunch things down to mathematics (a sheer impossibility), I'd want something like the following results via. computer simulation:5% chance of PC death for smart play20% chance of PC death for average play40% chance of PC death for below average play80% chance of PC death for poor play1% chance of TPK for smart play5% chance of TPK for average play15% chance of TPK for below average play40% chance of TPK for poor playPlay can refer to character building, tactics and/or teamwork. Smart play would have optimized characters will good team work and tactics. Average play would probably be missing either good tactics or optimized characters (or only slightly lower of both). Below Average play would either have both, or some inter-party conflict that keeps the teamwork from functioning well. Poor play would have badly designed characters and/or counterproductive actions.</blockquote>

[QUOTE="Shiroiken, post: 7143557, member: 6775477"] Published adventure always run afoul of variance in groups, from the DMs to the players. That's why DMing is more art than science. If I were to try to crunch things down to mathematics (a sheer impossibility), I'd want something like the following results via. computer simulation: 5% chance of PC death for smart play 20% chance of PC death for average play 40% chance of PC death for below average play 80% chance of PC death for poor play 1% chance of TPK for smart play 5% chance of TPK for average play 15% chance of TPK for below average play 40% chance of TPK for poor play Play can refer to character building, tactics and/or teamwork. Smart play would have optimized characters will good team work and tactics. Average play would probably be missing either good tactics or optimized characters (or only slightly lower of both). Below Average play would either have both, or some inter-party conflict that keeps the teamwork from functioning well. Poor play would have badly designed characters and/or counterproductive actions. [/QUOTE]

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