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Message: <blockquote data-quote="DND_Reborn" data-source="post: 8124518" data-attributes="member: 6987520">Of course I can. I depends on what your interest is. Thus far, we (the thread as I see it) have been discussing the chance during a round, not an entire adventure! But if you want to change the focus of interest to more support your case, fine I can play along.FWIW, you could have shown the same thing by saying it basically 72 rounds of battle over the 6 days, using my 0.002 probability of a disaster occurring from my prior post, it works out to your 13.4%. So, you aren't really showing anything new here, just your twist on it.Now, even given those numbers, that PC could go on nearly 5 such adventures and have about a 50/50 chance of a disaster, which equates to well over 1250 attacks. It actually works out, in this case, to 1386 attacks before the chance of a disaster finally exceeds 50% (over 28 days of adventuring, btw).But, as I said, if the numbers are too high for you, decrease the DC to 10 and it chances your scenario (288 attacks we will say..., assuming at least a +8 modifier or better) to 51.36% for a mishap (which the PC probably won't be inconvenienced by) and just 3.536% for a disaster. Such an individual could go on nearly 20 such 6-day campaigns with less than a 50/50 chance of a disaster happening on any them. With DC 10, this fighter would have to make 5545 attacks before the chance of a disaster happening exceed 50%. 5545 attacks, which would be over 114 days of adventuring with 48 attacks per day.Then, consider the consequences of the disaster. Most of the time IME it is an inconvenience at worst and comical. I've never encountered a time when hitting your ally happened at just the right moment that you knocked him out by reducing him to 0 HP, and worse yet without that ally the party suffered a TPK or something crazy. Could it happen? Sure, of course, but in the same light it is just as much to the advantage of the PCs.Think of this: players wince when the hear the DM cry out "critical hit!" against them, but they will also cheer when an enemy happens to run up to them, miss with a mishap, and fall prone without any movement left. "It's clobbering time!" <img src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/joypixels/assets/8.0/png/unicode/64/1f609.png" class="smilie smilie--emoji" loading="lazy" width="64" height="64" alt=";)" title="Wink    ;)"  data-smilie="2"data-shortname=";)" />Anyway, I can play with numbers as much as you want but I have to get some dinner soon (I am so hungry!). The real question a player (or DM) has to ask themselves is this: is the result of fumbling something I want to have in a game I play in? I've read lots of people like them, lots don't. I don't recall reading a person posting, meh, I can take them or leave them but someone might have. So, you don't like the odds with my confirmation DC 15? Fine, what probability would be acceptable to you? If the answer is 0, then just don't use them. If a player can say, "Well, maybe 1 in 100" or whatever, a system can be made that will hit or come close to those odds.</blockquote>

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