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How fantastic are natural 1's?
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<blockquote data-quote="DND_Reborn" data-source="post: 8124747" data-attributes="member: 6987520"><p>I happens. I've removed things myself because it is more productive to stay on point.</p><p></p><p></p><p>Sure, did you expect anything different? Whenever you get more attacks, your chances of errors increases. Actually, the peak is whenever you hit +8 bonus (with 2 attacks) since at that point a nat 1 is all that fails the confirmation roll. If you roll scores, it could be as early as 5th level. Regardless, the probability fluctuates between roughly 9.5% and 4.9% for the most part (depending on exact bonuses and number of attacks), over 10 rounds of combat.</p><p></p><p>Anyway, if you do +5 for level 1, and +11 for level 20, the odds of a mishap are basically identical (9.5618 vs. 9.5276), despite the level 20 PC getting 4x the number of attacks.</p><p></p><p>Again, if the precise numbers bother you (anecdotally I've never had a problem with these house-rules, even with DC 15...), you can always do what others have suggested, and apply the fumble rules to just the first attack, or only one attack per turn (which also decreases the odds).</p><p></p><p>Another idea I came up with yesterday, but haven't had time to run the numbers yet, is that when making your confirmation rolls you use a number of d20s equal to your proficiency bonus. So, at level 20, you get to roll 6d20 and use the best result. The numbers become so small by level 20, using the 288 attacks over the 6-day adventure from before, the odds of a mishap are less than 1 in 4 million. <em>THAT</em> is small enough, IMO, I wouldn't even bother anymore. If you return to DC 15, it is about 1 in 6000 (for all 288 attacks). So, I like the concept (you gain more dice because your proficiency goes up, which offsets the extra attacks pretty well), but personally is too fiddly for me and since I don't have time now to do any more with it, I'll leave it to you if you like the concept.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="DND_Reborn, post: 8124747, member: 6987520"] I happens. I've removed things myself because it is more productive to stay on point. Sure, did you expect anything different? Whenever you get more attacks, your chances of errors increases. Actually, the peak is whenever you hit +8 bonus (with 2 attacks) since at that point a nat 1 is all that fails the confirmation roll. If you roll scores, it could be as early as 5th level. Regardless, the probability fluctuates between roughly 9.5% and 4.9% for the most part (depending on exact bonuses and number of attacks), over 10 rounds of combat. Anyway, if you do +5 for level 1, and +11 for level 20, the odds of a mishap are basically identical (9.5618 vs. 9.5276), despite the level 20 PC getting 4x the number of attacks. Again, if the precise numbers bother you (anecdotally I've never had a problem with these house-rules, even with DC 15...), you can always do what others have suggested, and apply the fumble rules to just the first attack, or only one attack per turn (which also decreases the odds). Another idea I came up with yesterday, but haven't had time to run the numbers yet, is that when making your confirmation rolls you use a number of d20s equal to your proficiency bonus. So, at level 20, you get to roll 6d20 and use the best result. The numbers become so small by level 20, using the 288 attacks over the 6-day adventure from before, the odds of a mishap are less than 1 in 4 million. [I]THAT[/I] is small enough, IMO, I wouldn't even bother anymore. If you return to DC 15, it is about 1 in 6000 (for all 288 attacks). So, I like the concept (you gain more dice because your proficiency goes up, which offsets the extra attacks pretty well), but personally is too fiddly for me and since I don't have time now to do any more with it, I'll leave it to you if you like the concept. [/QUOTE]
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