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Message: <blockquote data-quote="aramis erak" data-source="post: 6413499" data-attributes="member: 6779310">Working strictly with averages...Given that it takes approximately 400 common men① to do about 1d6 damage, and that requires long range missile fire to attain.Within 120', one can get 400 common men in by having roughly 1 per 4 squares.②The dragon has a 90° cone breath weapon, averaging 80 guys killed per 3 rounds. ③The dragon has a 15' radius on the wing beat, and kills about 8 more with that every round.④The dragon has a tail attack as a legendary. It kills one more every round.⑤On rounds it doesn't breath, the dragon can kill as many as it can reach with the multiattack Claw/Claw/Bite, killing about 3 per round. ⑥So, the attack pattern is 1,4,7,11, etc: Breath/Tail/wings, for 87 80+1+6 (because two of the guys in reach died from the breath)2,3,5,6,8,9,12,13, etc: Claw/Claw/Bite/tail/wings for 3+1+8=12And the dragon takes 1d6 per round. It takes 75 rounds, and thus 25*(87+12+12)=2775 common men, motivated to do so, to kill the dragon.The ancient red dragon needs about 150d6 of damage to be killed. It probably won't stick around if it's starting to look dicey; they're proud and arrogant, but hardly stupid.① A DC26 save is failed by common men. This means they have disadvantage. To hit AC22, they need a need a nat 20, as they don't have a positive modifier from skill, so it doesn't matter if they're proficient or not. So, with disadvantage, a nat 20 is 1 in 400. Since you have to be proficient to fire at long range, and they're not, you give them all longbows and pray.② 120' is roughly 1810 squares. to get 400 men in there, that is 1 per 4.5 squares, round down to 1 per 4.③ 90' cone is 324 squares, or 80 guys at 1 per 4 men. 5-6 chance of recharge means an average of one breath every 3 rounds. It's save for half, so common men die either way. ④ 15' radius is roughly 29 squares, or about 8 guys killed. the DC23 cannot be made by common men, and the average damage of it is more than double a commoner's HP of 4. Dead.⑤ Average damage kills outright.⑥ 2.8, really. 19/20 chance, doing a minimum damage enough to kill them.</blockquote>

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