Menu
News
All News
Dungeons & Dragons
Level Up: Advanced 5th Edition
Pathfinder
Starfinder
Warhammer
2d20 System
Year Zero Engine
Industry News
Reviews
Dragon Reflections
White Dwarf Reflections
Columns
Weekly Digests
Weekly News Digest
Freebies, Sales & Bundles
RPG Print News
RPG Crowdfunding News
Game Content
ENterplanetary DimENsions
Mythological Figures
Opinion
Worlds of Design
Peregrine's Nest
RPG Evolution
Other Columns
From the Freelancing Frontline
Monster ENcyclopedia
WotC/TSR Alumni Look Back
4 Hours w/RSD (Ryan Dancey)
The Road to 3E (Jonathan Tweet)
Greenwood's Realms (Ed Greenwood)
Drawmij's TSR (Jim Ward)
Community
Forums & Topics
Forum List
Latest Posts
Forum list
*Dungeons & Dragons
Level Up: Advanced 5th Edition
D&D Older Editions, OSR, & D&D Variants
*TTRPGs General
*Pathfinder & Starfinder
EN Publishing
*Geek Talk & Media
Search forums
Chat/Discord
Resources
Wiki
Pages
Latest activity
Media
New media
New comments
Search media
Downloads
Latest reviews
Search resources
EN Publishing
Store
EN5ider
Adventures in ZEITGEIST
Awfully Cheerful Engine
What's OLD is NEW
Judge Dredd & The Worlds Of 2000AD
War of the Burning Sky
Level Up: Advanced 5E
Events & Releases
Upcoming Events
Private Events
Featured Events
Socials!
EN Publishing
Twitter
BlueSky
Facebook
Instagram
EN World
BlueSky
YouTube
Facebook
Twitter
Twitch
Podcast
Features
Top 5 RPGs Compiled Charts 2004-Present
Adventure Game Industry Market Research Summary (RPGs) V1.0
Ryan Dancey: Acquiring TSR
Q&A With Gary Gygax
D&D Rules FAQs
TSR, WotC, & Paizo: A Comparative History
D&D Pronunciation Guide
Million Dollar TTRPG Kickstarters
Tabletop RPG Podcast Hall of Fame
Eric Noah's Unofficial D&D 3rd Edition News
D&D in the Mainstream
D&D & RPG History
About Morrus
Log in
Register
What's new
Search
Search
Search titles only
By:
Forums & Topics
Forum List
Latest Posts
Forum list
*Dungeons & Dragons
Level Up: Advanced 5th Edition
D&D Older Editions, OSR, & D&D Variants
*TTRPGs General
*Pathfinder & Starfinder
EN Publishing
*Geek Talk & Media
Search forums
Chat/Discord
Menu
Log in
Register
Install the app
Install
Upgrade your account to a Community Supporter account and remove most of the site ads.
Community
General Tabletop Discussion
*Dungeons & Dragons
How to slow the 5E treadmill?
JavaScript is disabled. For a better experience, please enable JavaScript in your browser before proceeding.
You are using an out of date browser. It may not display this or other websites correctly.
You should upgrade or use an
alternative browser
.
Reply to thread
Message
<blockquote data-quote="Rygar" data-source="post: 6333996" data-attributes="member: 6756765"><p>Those are the numbers for E-book sales though Jester...</p><p></p><p><a href="http://www.forbes.com/sites/jeremygreenfield/2013/11/19/hardcover-sales-growth-outpacing-ebooks-in-2013/" target="_blank">http://www.forbes.com/sites/jeremygreenfield/2013/11/19/hardcover-sales-growth-outpacing-ebooks-in-2013/</a></p><p></p><p>If E-books require some specific standout title in some specific niche to demonstrate strength, then they're a niche. If E-books were not a niche product, then it wouldn't require some specific title to outsell hardbounds, they would show the same sales pattern.</p><p></p><p>I'm not arguing that E-books are failing. I'm just stating that they're a niche product, with a relatively low penetration, and designing a business strategy around them is planning to fail. They're a great side-product to cater to that niche which they will appriciate and readily purchase, but they're insufficiently large if the plan is to succeed on a mass market scale.</p><p></p><p> </p><p></p><p></p><p>My point was, the PC's who are subject to piracy are generating more revenue than all of the consoles combined, despite piracy.</p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p>I'm going to have to disagree with you. 4th edition's issues were a direct result of the number of people rejecting 4th edition, blaming it on anything else is just trying to avoid root cause. Would 4th edition have sold some more units if people hadn't rejected it? Certainly. Would it have changed the outcome? Definitely not. As such, DDI and all other factors are irrelevant, the root cause was sufficiently large enough that even without all of the other problems, the conclusion wouldn't have changed.</p><p></p><p>The recession is a great example of the many things people point at to justify 4th edition's problems by avoiding the number of people it drove away, during 2008 and 2009, the peak of the recession, console game sales hit their peak. They showed growth for both years despite the recession, so it is extremely unlikely that people were paying $60 a pop for video games that only last 20 hours or so without care, but wouldn't buy 3 books that would last indefinitely. If people weren't buying the books in those years it wasn't because of the recession, it was because they weren't interested in the game.</p><p></p><p>I also think you're not fully analyzing the revenue from both DDI and books sufficiently. What is the profit margin from the sales of books to one customer over 6 months? Would they have bought every book? Would that number exceed $17 per person? DDI was "Free money", the cost of delivering the content was so low that the revenue is almost all profit. The profit margin on a book is very low. It is entirely possible that people signing up every 6 months yields nearly the same revenue as buying the books they would've bought normally. </p><p></p><p>I'm a little surprised that you're asserting that the reason why Hollywood is making more money than ever in the theaters is because the country that is historically the piracy capital of the world is going to the theaters. That just demonstrates what I'm saying, if the country that historically has one of the largest piracy rates is happily paying for their content in sufficient numbers to generate huge revenues then piracy obviously cannot be a very big issue.</p><p></p><p>So in the end, what we're talking about here is the portion of the market interested in E-books, and the portion of that market that will pirate. The number I'm finding for E-books is 20% of the market, so we're talking about a fraction of that. Even if every single one of that 20% pirated 4th edition instead of buying it, 4th edition was still in trouble. For that number to be relevant, the number of people buying 4th edition had to be large enough that the 20% didn't actually matter anyways. If you have 1,000,000 people and 200,000 aren't paying then it would make it difference, but if you have 100,000 people and 20,000 aren't paying, the problem is that you only have 100,000 players, not the 20,000.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Rygar, post: 6333996, member: 6756765"] Those are the numbers for E-book sales though Jester... [url]http://www.forbes.com/sites/jeremygreenfield/2013/11/19/hardcover-sales-growth-outpacing-ebooks-in-2013/[/url] If E-books require some specific standout title in some specific niche to demonstrate strength, then they're a niche. If E-books were not a niche product, then it wouldn't require some specific title to outsell hardbounds, they would show the same sales pattern. I'm not arguing that E-books are failing. I'm just stating that they're a niche product, with a relatively low penetration, and designing a business strategy around them is planning to fail. They're a great side-product to cater to that niche which they will appriciate and readily purchase, but they're insufficiently large if the plan is to succeed on a mass market scale. My point was, the PC's who are subject to piracy are generating more revenue than all of the consoles combined, despite piracy. I'm going to have to disagree with you. 4th edition's issues were a direct result of the number of people rejecting 4th edition, blaming it on anything else is just trying to avoid root cause. Would 4th edition have sold some more units if people hadn't rejected it? Certainly. Would it have changed the outcome? Definitely not. As such, DDI and all other factors are irrelevant, the root cause was sufficiently large enough that even without all of the other problems, the conclusion wouldn't have changed. The recession is a great example of the many things people point at to justify 4th edition's problems by avoiding the number of people it drove away, during 2008 and 2009, the peak of the recession, console game sales hit their peak. They showed growth for both years despite the recession, so it is extremely unlikely that people were paying $60 a pop for video games that only last 20 hours or so without care, but wouldn't buy 3 books that would last indefinitely. If people weren't buying the books in those years it wasn't because of the recession, it was because they weren't interested in the game. I also think you're not fully analyzing the revenue from both DDI and books sufficiently. What is the profit margin from the sales of books to one customer over 6 months? Would they have bought every book? Would that number exceed $17 per person? DDI was "Free money", the cost of delivering the content was so low that the revenue is almost all profit. The profit margin on a book is very low. It is entirely possible that people signing up every 6 months yields nearly the same revenue as buying the books they would've bought normally. I'm a little surprised that you're asserting that the reason why Hollywood is making more money than ever in the theaters is because the country that is historically the piracy capital of the world is going to the theaters. That just demonstrates what I'm saying, if the country that historically has one of the largest piracy rates is happily paying for their content in sufficient numbers to generate huge revenues then piracy obviously cannot be a very big issue. So in the end, what we're talking about here is the portion of the market interested in E-books, and the portion of that market that will pirate. The number I'm finding for E-books is 20% of the market, so we're talking about a fraction of that. Even if every single one of that 20% pirated 4th edition instead of buying it, 4th edition was still in trouble. For that number to be relevant, the number of people buying 4th edition had to be large enough that the 20% didn't actually matter anyways. If you have 1,000,000 people and 200,000 aren't paying then it would make it difference, but if you have 100,000 people and 20,000 aren't paying, the problem is that you only have 100,000 players, not the 20,000. [/QUOTE]
Insert quotes…
Verification
Post reply
Community
General Tabletop Discussion
*Dungeons & Dragons
How to slow the 5E treadmill?
Top