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How well do you predict non-OGL/CC games will do?
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<blockquote data-quote="aramis erak" data-source="post: 9235059" data-attributes="member: 6779310"><p>The only OGL free league has used themselves is for TOR2's LOTR parallel. </p><p>And that largely wasn't their choice, so much as part of the deal with the designer (who holds the actual license).</p><p>There is an SRD for the YZE, but the compatibility marking is only for the Free League Workshop program. </p><p></p><p>I've only bought 4 projects claiming D&D 5e compatibility, 2 of them sucked harder than the NASA space suit testing facility's air evacuation pumps. The other two (Monarchies of Mau/Pugmire, and SG-1) are significantly different.</p><p></p><p>Both have been profitable for their design teams, and have had significant merit for being different in key ways.</p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p>In 2023 I've run Savage Worlds (in the Deadlands setting), Twilight 2000 4e, a hacked version of MegaTraveller, WFRP 1e, Alien, Blade Runner, and Cyclopedia edition D&D (Alston's edition, the sequel to BECMI; Denning's Big Black Basic was it's starter set). </p><p>Blade Runner came out this year. T2K 4e came out just as the pandemic lockdown was relaxing. I'd not run Savage Worlds before, but have had a copy since 2012 or so. I'd not run the Deadlands setting before (as DL as a standalone had a nightmare char gen according to my wife...). </p><p></p><p>I've run at least 1 new-to-me system every year since 1985. Many years 5+ new systems. This does count edition changes when they are identifiably by the contents of a hand-written sheet (due to att changes, or skill lists, or different weapon data, etc), or due to significant mechanical changes.</p><p></p><p></p><p>Many casual players won't go behind the paywall, or will cheat and share accounts.</p><p>Pirate scans will hit the web as fast as people can break the DRM on the website.</p><p></p><p></p><p>For certain versions of "succeed", yes. I expect MCDM is going to make more than they would have by being a medium fish in the D&D pond... What I skimmed of the publicly available isn't in my interest zone, but it's good enough that I expect between his visibility and the extant fan base, it's going to, like Pathfinder, probably last. </p><p></p><p>Knowing the actual numbers for GDW... Mongoose has sold more Traveller corebooks than Marc Miller has for any given edition save 1... the 190K and counting cores for Classic. I can't be sure, because Matt "I am Mongoose" Sprange is far less open about hard numbers than Marc is. Marc's getting a nice cut, but PDF of classic is still moving in interestingly large amounts. Large enough that Marc is working on a remastered edition of CT.</p><p></p><p></p><p>Traveller has a thousand-a-month log-ins in its official forums, and hundred a month active posters. Most of the accounts identify as GM's. So, yeah, Marc's 4 person shop is doing sales. Matt's also doing a lot of sales of traveller, and Mongoose isn't exactly big.</p><p>Modiphius is actively selling new materials aplenty for its 2d20 lines... Star Trek and Dune, especially, but also Fallout.</p><p>Free League has two huge licenses - Alien and Blade Runner - plus a raft of in-house, and is serving as publisher for a number of 3pp's, including the runaway hit of Mork Borg. On top of that, they've splashed with Dragonbane and it's got a bunch of 3pp participants in the "Free League Workshop" programs...</p><p></p><p>The OGL debacle by WotC poured outside spotlites on the second tier, the third tier, and the toxic monopolistic behavior of WotC. HasBro ain't gonna close WotC, but they are going to try to get more monopolistic.</p><p></p><p>I also expect chatbots will get better... but they're not going to replace the group-at-table. They're going to get a lot of "can't find a group" types laments, much like a lot of my friends relied upon Infocom text adventures to bide us through lean gaming times.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="aramis erak, post: 9235059, member: 6779310"] The only OGL free league has used themselves is for TOR2's LOTR parallel. And that largely wasn't their choice, so much as part of the deal with the designer (who holds the actual license). There is an SRD for the YZE, but the compatibility marking is only for the Free League Workshop program. I've only bought 4 projects claiming D&D 5e compatibility, 2 of them sucked harder than the NASA space suit testing facility's air evacuation pumps. The other two (Monarchies of Mau/Pugmire, and SG-1) are significantly different. Both have been profitable for their design teams, and have had significant merit for being different in key ways. In 2023 I've run Savage Worlds (in the Deadlands setting), Twilight 2000 4e, a hacked version of MegaTraveller, WFRP 1e, Alien, Blade Runner, and Cyclopedia edition D&D (Alston's edition, the sequel to BECMI; Denning's Big Black Basic was it's starter set). Blade Runner came out this year. T2K 4e came out just as the pandemic lockdown was relaxing. I'd not run Savage Worlds before, but have had a copy since 2012 or so. I'd not run the Deadlands setting before (as DL as a standalone had a nightmare char gen according to my wife...). I've run at least 1 new-to-me system every year since 1985. Many years 5+ new systems. This does count edition changes when they are identifiably by the contents of a hand-written sheet (due to att changes, or skill lists, or different weapon data, etc), or due to significant mechanical changes. Many casual players won't go behind the paywall, or will cheat and share accounts. Pirate scans will hit the web as fast as people can break the DRM on the website. For certain versions of "succeed", yes. I expect MCDM is going to make more than they would have by being a medium fish in the D&D pond... What I skimmed of the publicly available isn't in my interest zone, but it's good enough that I expect between his visibility and the extant fan base, it's going to, like Pathfinder, probably last. Knowing the actual numbers for GDW... Mongoose has sold more Traveller corebooks than Marc Miller has for any given edition save 1... the 190K and counting cores for Classic. I can't be sure, because Matt "I am Mongoose" Sprange is far less open about hard numbers than Marc is. Marc's getting a nice cut, but PDF of classic is still moving in interestingly large amounts. Large enough that Marc is working on a remastered edition of CT. Traveller has a thousand-a-month log-ins in its official forums, and hundred a month active posters. Most of the accounts identify as GM's. So, yeah, Marc's 4 person shop is doing sales. Matt's also doing a lot of sales of traveller, and Mongoose isn't exactly big. Modiphius is actively selling new materials aplenty for its 2d20 lines... Star Trek and Dune, especially, but also Fallout. Free League has two huge licenses - Alien and Blade Runner - plus a raft of in-house, and is serving as publisher for a number of 3pp's, including the runaway hit of Mork Borg. On top of that, they've splashed with Dragonbane and it's got a bunch of 3pp participants in the "Free League Workshop" programs... The OGL debacle by WotC poured outside spotlites on the second tier, the third tier, and the toxic monopolistic behavior of WotC. HasBro ain't gonna close WotC, but they are going to try to get more monopolistic. I also expect chatbots will get better... but they're not going to replace the group-at-table. They're going to get a lot of "can't find a group" types laments, much like a lot of my friends relied upon Infocom text adventures to bide us through lean gaming times. [/QUOTE]
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