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Message: <blockquote data-quote="The Sigil" data-source="post: 9235134" data-attributes="member: 2013">I think there are many dynamics at play here…1. Like it or not, D&D is synonymous with Fantasy TTRPG. Other fantasy TTRPGs have always been dwarfed by D&D and while each tends to build up its own following, even PF2E (which I personally like) does not have what I would call “robust” third party support. It has some, but even in the 90’s when other RPGs were thick on the ground, for fantasy, D&D had the most support and until physical publishing goes the way of the dodo, I don’t expect that to change. Pathfinder seems to be to me a unique circumstance wherein a group that had worked as semi official D&D publishers (Dragon, Dungeon) got handed a legacy D&D version to build from (3.5e) that was popular at the time, something they could continue to support (thanks OGL) and that was succeeded by a version of D&D that was a sufficient break with tradition that the usual edition splintering handed them a built in following. That is not to demean Paulo - they still had to run with this and do great work - but I doubt we will see that confluence of events again soon.For example, Kobold Press may have a legacy D&D version to build from and that the can continue to support (5e plus OGL), but I don’t foresee 6e (or whatever they are calling it now, everyone knows what I’m talking about and 6e is short to type) being so different from 5e as we saw with the chasm between 3e and 4e and thus I don’t think they will be handed the same type of a built in following as Pathfinder. Similarly, MCDM‘s system isn’t built on the 5e frame which means can’t be handed the same built in fan base familiar with 5e. I could go on but you get the point - there are pieces there for a number of games, but none of them get ALL the pieces Paulo got  with PF.2. As others have mentioned, White Wolf was the darling of the late 90’s, but it wasn’t Fantasy. Its theme was different enough that it could become The Modern Gothic Horror TTRPG. Similarly, Traveller and Star Wars were the “Space for Serious Folks” and “Space Opera” TTRPGs. Rifts was the “Post Apocalyptic Kitchen Sink” TTRPG. Cyberpunk was the “Gritty Dystopian Future” TTRPG... and so on. All of them were to some degree popularized by the cultural zeitgeist of the time outside TTRPGs - they had a built in young adult audience.I’m probably too old to have my finger on the cultural zeitgeist now, and it is hard for me to come up with an RPG concept that might capture it… five years ago, a Superheroes RPG might have been the thing that could capture folks but there seems now to be superhero fatigue in the popular consciousness. Fifteen years ago ot might have been “magic meets modern” (Harry Potter, Percy Jackson, etc.) and ten years ago it was probably “dystopian murder game shows” (Hunger Games, Divergent) or possibly sparkly vampires (Twilight) but those boats have all sailed and if I knew what the next big thing was going to be, I wouldn’t be posting it here - I would probably be trying to sell the idea to a mega corporation for branding.But until something comes along that combines both a tap into popular zeitgeist with unique feeling rules, my guess is we are in for a bit of a drought.3. Balkanization is, I think, bad for the hobby. Twenty years ago, DriveThruRPG felt incredibly relevant and chock full of high quality stuff. Everybody that was releasing PDFs used the,. Now, a lot of companies sell through their own sites (and paywalls - proabably to cut out DTRPG’s cut), but there is also the problem that DTRPG has been flooded with both lower-quality and lower-page count materials alongside high quality materials and fully formed complete games get as much page space as someone’s three page half developed idea.Similarly, it’s not always easy to find TTRPGs on Kickstarter and quite frankly, it seems they are all plagued with production delays and it is a PITA to keep up on all the useless updates people send until you can finally get the product you paid for. Worse, if you miss a kickstarter window, it is not always easy to pick up a product that might have had its Kickstarter a year or two ago. I have gotten some great stuff from Kickstarters and am still waiting on some more stuff I think will be great. But I will never back another Kickstarter again… I will just wait until the finished product is availbel for me to download now because the whole process has been drawn out and unpleasant for me (YMMV).FLGS’s now carry just the big boys. They don’t carry much indie stuff - not enough profit. Walden books. Long gone. And besides, most publishing is PDF these days rather than physical.In other words, it is becoming harder and harder to “stumble upon” stuff. If you already know what you want and who is making it, it is often easier to get than ever. But only having access to what you and your friends already know makes discovering harder. That will make word of mouth even more important In the future.4. This kind of goes with the above, but physical (print) is dying, just like physical toys are dying. But I also don’t think VTTs in their current incarnation, trying to recreate a physical experience, are going to work (which is why I am pretty sanguine on the WotC VTT). I also think trying to incorporate video game tech into VTTs is a fool’s errand as video games will always do graphics better.With all of this in mind, here is what I think.Inertia will keep D&D at the top of the heap for a long time.A Balkanized TTRPG space will allow many small publishers to make enough product to keep themselves happy.in the mid term, PDFs will continue to be the publishing paradigm.At some point in the next ten years, one or two original games will come out with “fresh mechanics” and themed to the popular zeitgeist that will let them eclipse everything else in their niche.Someone will invent the “killer app” for RPG play that moves them off the tabletop and into a mobile device. This will more closely resemble old “play by mail” games than “augmented reality” by which I mean there will be short daily bursts of actions/updates with pauses in between so you don’t have to coordinate synchronous online time - supporting asynchronous play in a clever manner will be the killer app.People will still play OSRIC and the younger generation will find TTRPGs quaint and prefer the new tech in the same way they find Atari 2600s quaint and don’t begrudge grognards fdor using them but they would rather play their PS5s today.Looking forward to seeing how wrong I am in a couple years’ time.</blockquote>

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