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I think we can safely say that 5E is a success, but will it lead to a new Golden Era?
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<blockquote data-quote="Siberys" data-source="post: 6361566" data-attributes="member: 30619"><p>[MENTION=48965]Imaro[/MENTION]</p><p></p><p>I read it, and I read it very, very carefully. Nothing in that post has any information about why 4e was dropped. As I said, Scott Rouse would have been off the team for a long time at the point that post was made. All that post says is that there is community splintering. We've known that since well before that post was made.</p><p></p><p>Let's imagine a scenario;</p><p></p><p>- Assume that the 11 million number for Paizo's yearly earnings is accurate.</p><p>- Assume, for the sake of argument, that 4e pulled in 22 million in a year.</p><p>- Assume that, unlike IRL, 4e was a massive success and suffered no community issues, enough that the 11 mil/year that would have gone to Paizo went to 4e instead, for a total of 33 mil/year.</p><p></p><p>In that scenario, 4e is a huge outlier in the industry, making a ridiculous amount of money. Now, here's the thing; even with a track record like that, even with no big competitor and a happily unfractured community, 4e is /still/ in danger of being canned by Hasbro, because it's 17 mil under projections! Perhaps it would have been able to ride long enough that Hasbro would lift its brand requirements - we know that 5e doesn't have to worry about them, so that's conceivable. Maybe, IRL, the community issues, on top of failing to meet Hasbro's brand standards, were what finally tipped the scales. We don't know.</p><p></p><p>And, see, that's what I've been trying to communicate here. Those things are plausible, but we have no evidence that they actually happened. So don't present it as fact, because at this point it's purely speculation. The ONLY thing we can present as fact is the brand requirements, and those are plenty sufficient to explain the edition change. Presenting it as fact is misleading.</p><p></p><p> [MENTION=42582]pemerton[/MENTION] - Sorry if I spoke for you. Didn't mean to put words in your mouth.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Siberys, post: 6361566, member: 30619"] [MENTION=48965]Imaro[/MENTION] I read it, and I read it very, very carefully. Nothing in that post has any information about why 4e was dropped. As I said, Scott Rouse would have been off the team for a long time at the point that post was made. All that post says is that there is community splintering. We've known that since well before that post was made. Let's imagine a scenario; - Assume that the 11 million number for Paizo's yearly earnings is accurate. - Assume, for the sake of argument, that 4e pulled in 22 million in a year. - Assume that, unlike IRL, 4e was a massive success and suffered no community issues, enough that the 11 mil/year that would have gone to Paizo went to 4e instead, for a total of 33 mil/year. In that scenario, 4e is a huge outlier in the industry, making a ridiculous amount of money. Now, here's the thing; even with a track record like that, even with no big competitor and a happily unfractured community, 4e is /still/ in danger of being canned by Hasbro, because it's 17 mil under projections! Perhaps it would have been able to ride long enough that Hasbro would lift its brand requirements - we know that 5e doesn't have to worry about them, so that's conceivable. Maybe, IRL, the community issues, on top of failing to meet Hasbro's brand standards, were what finally tipped the scales. We don't know. And, see, that's what I've been trying to communicate here. Those things are plausible, but we have no evidence that they actually happened. So don't present it as fact, because at this point it's purely speculation. The ONLY thing we can present as fact is the brand requirements, and those are plenty sufficient to explain the edition change. Presenting it as fact is misleading. [MENTION=42582]pemerton[/MENTION] - Sorry if I spoke for you. Didn't mean to put words in your mouth. [/QUOTE]
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I think we can safely say that 5E is a success, but will it lead to a new Golden Era?
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