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<blockquote data-quote="Esker" data-source="post: 7894466" data-attributes="member: 6966824"><p>Right. But with 3d6 part of the reason the value of the +1 varies more is that it's functionally more like a +2, due to the fact that the rolls are not only bell-shaped, they're also more compressed.</p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p>You are changing what it means. The number 15 doesn't mean anything in a vacuum; it only means something insofar as it translates to a certain probability of success. If you hold the bonus constant (at +1, say, which was my example), DC 15 is 35% success (roll a 14 or better) on a d20 roll, but only 16% success on a 3d6 roll. In what sense does that mean the same thing?</p><p></p><p>Now I guess you could reframe and say, "What I mean by 'moderately difficult' isn't how likely a reference character is to succeed, but rather what bonus a character needs to have a 50/50 shot." In that case, DC 15 translates to needing a +4 to have a 50/50 shot in both systems. But (I would argue) that's thinking about it backwards, because +4 doesn't mean anything in a vacuum either; it only means something insofar as the effect it has on the chance to succeed. And in a d20 system, +4 vs +0 is a 20% increase across the board, whereas in a 3d6 system, a +4 is, apart from a couple of very easy or very hard tasks, worth between 25% and as much as 56%. So in what sense is it reasonable to say that characters with +4s in both systems have the same level of skill? Except in that they both succeed at DC 15 checks half the time, but that's circular reasoning.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Esker, post: 7894466, member: 6966824"] Right. But with 3d6 part of the reason the value of the +1 varies more is that it's functionally more like a +2, due to the fact that the rolls are not only bell-shaped, they're also more compressed. You are changing what it means. The number 15 doesn't mean anything in a vacuum; it only means something insofar as it translates to a certain probability of success. If you hold the bonus constant (at +1, say, which was my example), DC 15 is 35% success (roll a 14 or better) on a d20 roll, but only 16% success on a 3d6 roll. In what sense does that mean the same thing? Now I guess you could reframe and say, "What I mean by 'moderately difficult' isn't how likely a reference character is to succeed, but rather what bonus a character needs to have a 50/50 shot." In that case, DC 15 translates to needing a +4 to have a 50/50 shot in both systems. But (I would argue) that's thinking about it backwards, because +4 doesn't mean anything in a vacuum either; it only means something insofar as the effect it has on the chance to succeed. And in a d20 system, +4 vs +0 is a 20% increase across the board, whereas in a 3d6 system, a +4 is, apart from a couple of very easy or very hard tasks, worth between 25% and as much as 56%. So in what sense is it reasonable to say that characters with +4s in both systems have the same level of skill? Except in that they both succeed at DC 15 checks half the time, but that's circular reasoning. [/QUOTE]
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