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Message: <blockquote data-quote="Thomas Shey" data-source="post: 8230796" data-attributes="member: 7026617">There are almost certainly three main groups of PF1e players who exist at this point (I'm ignoring people who've bailed completely out of the D&D-sphere, since its going to be impossible to say what kinds of reasons there are for that, and whether anything would have changed it).1. People who transitioned to 5e.  There can certainly be argued some of these might have not done so if PF1e continued to be supported, but that's a counterfactual; even without any inside specifics I can pretty much assume that was not economically viable, or Paizo would not have gone to the work of doing 2e.  So in practice, you have the people who were going to leave to 5e one way or another for the most part anyway.2. People who stuck with 1e even though its no longer supported.  That absolutely was going to happen with any significant edition transition.  It always does.3. People who transitioned to 2e.So, in practice, what's required here is to proponents of a different version of PF2e need to demonstrate in some way other than declaration, that the groups in the first two categories would have been smaller and the third group larger with different choices.  That is, and likely can't be, anything but speculative.As to going head to head with 5e--that's not exactly what's happening any more, and I doubt Paizo had any delusions it would be.  As I mentioned earlier in the thread, they could do that for a short while because of the historical accident of the large populace dissatisfied with 4e, many of whom were staying with 3e and thus were potentials for an alternate-3e.  That hasn't happened before, and likely would never happen again.But that doesn't mean there isn't room within the general D&D-sphere for people who want something D&D-like, but don't want what 5e is offering.  It isn't going to be as big as it was at the peak of the PF1e period, but that's not the expectation I expect; it just has to be enough bigger than the presumably progressively flatter sales of 1e to justify the effort.</blockquote>

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