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<blockquote data-quote="Lanefan" data-source="post: 9836907" data-attributes="member: 29398"><p>I am concerned about previous editions - more so than I am about 5e - and the same (or very similar) arguments apply to 1e and 2e which also had flatter math than did 3e and where rolling was the accepted default.</p><p></p><p>Even in 1e, though, melee bonuses getting into the plus double-digits at higher levels isn't out of line.</p><p></p><p>This assumes a few things that aren't always true:</p><p></p><p>--- that "catching up" matters (and sure, it does to some; but not to all)</p><p>--- that nothing in the game will permanently alter stats (e.g. the higher-stat character might get unlucky and permanently lose something or the lower-stat character might permanently gain something)</p><p>--- that randomness elsewhere won't have a say (believe me, IME it very much does; see below)</p><p>--- that there's little or no character turnover</p><p></p><p>A few (actually now several, come to think of it) years ago I ran the numbers on a pretty big random sample of characters that have appeared in our games (which have used a very similar roll-up system and rules set since the early 80s), specifically trying to see how much influence starting stats - measured as the average of the six stats after racial adjust - had on the character's projected career length as an adventurer, with "career length" measured by how many adventures the character appeared in.</p><p></p><p>The range of starting stat averages ran from about 11.0 up to about 16.5, career length ranged on a skewed bell curve from 0 (died in its first adventure) to a peak at 1 and 2 and a very long tail reaching out to the high 20s.</p><p></p><p>The result: starting stat average had very little (as in, quite possibly within statistical error) influence whatsoever. This is, I think, due to randomness elsewhere getting involved: good stats don't guarantee good hit points, nor smart play, nor that the second monster you meet won't crit you into oblivion, etc.</p><p></p><p>What made a much bigger difference was simply reaching your third adventure; if you got that far you were far more likely to go on to a long career, probably due to acquisition of useful magic items and-or enough acceptance within your party that they'd try to revive you if you died.</p><p></p><p>Side note: one of the lowest stat-average characters my current game has had (11.2 I think) is also tied for the campaign's longest career. Go figure.</p><p></p><p>With the way 5e tends to be played, with shorter campaigns often on a single AP along with generally lower lethality, this analysis won't be as relevant - but it still IMO has something to say as 5e's math isn't that different from 1e's in terms of power curve progression and "randomness elsewhere" isn't completely gone yet.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Lanefan, post: 9836907, member: 29398"] I am concerned about previous editions - more so than I am about 5e - and the same (or very similar) arguments apply to 1e and 2e which also had flatter math than did 3e and where rolling was the accepted default. Even in 1e, though, melee bonuses getting into the plus double-digits at higher levels isn't out of line. This assumes a few things that aren't always true: --- that "catching up" matters (and sure, it does to some; but not to all) --- that nothing in the game will permanently alter stats (e.g. the higher-stat character might get unlucky and permanently lose something or the lower-stat character might permanently gain something) --- that randomness elsewhere won't have a say (believe me, IME it very much does; see below) --- that there's little or no character turnover A few (actually now several, come to think of it) years ago I ran the numbers on a pretty big random sample of characters that have appeared in our games (which have used a very similar roll-up system and rules set since the early 80s), specifically trying to see how much influence starting stats - measured as the average of the six stats after racial adjust - had on the character's projected career length as an adventurer, with "career length" measured by how many adventures the character appeared in. The range of starting stat averages ran from about 11.0 up to about 16.5, career length ranged on a skewed bell curve from 0 (died in its first adventure) to a peak at 1 and 2 and a very long tail reaching out to the high 20s. The result: starting stat average had very little (as in, quite possibly within statistical error) influence whatsoever. This is, I think, due to randomness elsewhere getting involved: good stats don't guarantee good hit points, nor smart play, nor that the second monster you meet won't crit you into oblivion, etc. What made a much bigger difference was simply reaching your third adventure; if you got that far you were far more likely to go on to a long career, probably due to acquisition of useful magic items and-or enough acceptance within your party that they'd try to revive you if you died. Side note: one of the lowest stat-average characters my current game has had (11.2 I think) is also tied for the campaign's longest career. Go figure. With the way 5e tends to be played, with shorter campaigns often on a single AP along with generally lower lethality, this analysis won't be as relevant - but it still IMO has something to say as 5e's math isn't that different from 1e's in terms of power curve progression and "randomness elsewhere" isn't completely gone yet. [/QUOTE]
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