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Message: <blockquote data-quote="AngryPurpleCyclops" data-source="post: 4692551" data-attributes="member: 82732">Well, I can calculate it, I just won't because you're basing it on something entirely different than the reality of the game.  Kind of like the gamblers fallacy that something is "due" because the opposite has happened X number of times in the past.  My math covers ALL possibilities.  1st, shield only works on 20% of attacks and only if those attacks are in the 73% of AC/Reflex attacks.  This is EXACTLY 14.6% chance that each time a wizard is attacked shield can be of use.  2nd the halfling power works on ANY attack but only changes the outcome about 50% of the time.  This is roughly a 25% chance that each time the wizard is attacked the reroll power can help.  PLUS the halfling attack is 95% likely to remove a crit.  AND as an additional bonus (pretty hard to compute the exact math number) it can block attacks that are vs will and fort which are vastly more likely to have an additional effect than attacks vs AC.  So the reroll power can prevent a stun, daze, immobilize or ongoing damage much more frequently than shield can.  Valuing this is pretty abstract as is valuing crit reduction but they both add value to the power and can't be totally ignored.  I was willing to call this roughly equal to the ongoing ac defense value of shield, but you tried to use an obscure and unlikely anecdotal scenario to show that the continuing benefit of shield was very impressive.  I would argue pretty strongly that second chance is more effective than shield AND the added benefits of second chance are also stronger than the continuing benefits of shield.  Shield is more definite, in that if an attack vs reflex or AC hits by 3 or less shield can always change the outcome.  You have somehow confused the definitiveness with effectiveness.  If I offered you a power that automatically blocks all damage when the dm rolls an 18 on the ATT vs one that gives you a 40% chance to block all damage on ATT rolls 16-19 which would you take?Arguing that it's "a lot better" if it can't fail to be effective when it's used has several serious flaws.  First you discount the fact that in many encounters shield can NEVER be effective.   Second, you're taking the times when shield does work out of context with the times it doesn't.  Of course when shield works it's more effective than second chance.  When it works it works.  Second chance will still block more attacks over the life of your pc than shield.  Third your math avoids the reality that the most dangerous attacks have a higher probability of having a larger chance of success.  Take a look at a young green dragon for instance.  1000 exp, level 5 encounter for 5 level 2 pc's (to compare to my earlier goblin example).  Breath weapon and frightful presence both hit defenses that shield can't help with AND both have ongoing effects.  +8 vs will or +8 vs fort. blocking a d6+5 claw (6-11 and 8.5 avg) is a LOT less important than blocking d10+3 and 5 ongoing plus slow (save ends both) with an after effect of slow (save ends).  The attack is 5 ongoing alone is roughly 10 damage on average and 15+ more than 20% of the time, so you're looking at 4-13 initially with 8.5 average and a likely 9-38+ with 18 being the roughly average expected outcome.  This doesn't even take into account how much additional damage you might take from being slowed and unable to maneuver.  What's the average will/fort defense of a level 2 pc?  13-15?  This means that the really important attack might have a 60-75% chance to hit.  Third and most important, you make the fallacious argument that shield is too powerful and thus needs to be "downgraded".  Making shield more effective is not a bad thing when you consider that no matter how it's played on average it's LESS effective than the halfling power or shield of faith.  We're not talking about making a level 2 power that automatically prevents 40 damage we're talking about keeping it close to other similar powers.  Your convoluted grasp of logic and clinging to the instances when shield does work as being too powerful without considering all the times it fails to work is just a blatant disregard for mathematics and reality.</blockquote>

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