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Message: <blockquote data-quote="AngryPurpleCyclops" data-source="post: 4693960" data-attributes="member: 82732">This is problematic in that you're instantly discounting all the combats where shield never has a chance to be used.  not my math, just a rough number that I used to demonstrate the other calculations.  In most combats I have seen, the monsters usually need to roll about a 8-12 in order to hit the party with the vast majority of attacks.  50% seemed like a decent "estimate" to base the rest of the math on.  Feel free to point to a flaw in this assumption but try and back it up with fact if you do. Probably should have stopped right there.   well that's an awful assumption and pretty much ELIMINATES the need for either power.   It's second chance, not second wind and yes I agree that if pc's were hit only once in an encounter second chance has a better chance of being useful.The massive advantage of talking about all attacks is because it erases part of the error created by guessing at the hit number and also partially makes up for the fact that shield might be forced to block a relatively minor attack (in the 73% of AC/Reflex attacks you are counting ALL but 1 of the minions for example, if you assume you won't block a minion attack with shield nor second chance, then the math moves even more heavily towards second chance) while second chance might stop the devastating daily power.  Talking about all attacks also takes into account that in many encounters shield simply never gets used.  Second chance is probably 25-35% more likely to be used in any given encounter.No, my math specifically talks about the math on any given attack.  This means the math is the same on the first attack as it is on the second or tenth and only changes once the power is expended.Still second chance not second wind.  This is more horrible math and anecdotal evidence.  First if you assume the combat is 10 rounds long and then assume that the characters each get hit twice then the chance that the hits are "back to back" is about 20% so in 80% of the situations your math is flawed.  The chance that shield will affect an attack on the round of "sustained shielding" is exactly 14.6% per attack.  This is the only number that matters.  If there is no attack there is no added benefit.  If the attack already missed, no added benefit, if the attack was against fort, no added benefit, if the attack hits by 5 no added benefit.  We're trying to determine how much benefit is accrued by the player using the power.   it's difficult to even understand how you have come to these conclusions.  OK, I just went back and studied your post more carefully. I think what you are trying to say is that shield will eventually get deployed.  The 50% chance of second chance blocking the damage is expended first time  out.  I agree.  Point taken and while this does change things to some degree not at all in the manner you ramble about in your pseudo math.  Please also note that given the "guess factor" you want to apply, shield is also expended the first time out, so when you calculate the usefulness of shield under your system there is NO added benefit gained for subsequent attacks.No, you're quite mistaken.  After the powers were expended all subsequent hits are exactly equivalent.  The number of hits increases the chance that shield will be useful but it also increases the utility of second chance.  If only either power worked like this you would be correct.  By extension your math says that if you're hit 10 times in an encounter shield would block 2.92 of the attacks and second chance would block .5, a step further and we see that in 20 hits shield has blocked 5.84 of them and second chance has still blocked .5.  Do you see a problem with this? only in fairy tale math land.  There is a mathematical point at which shields odds of having stopped an attack does pass second chance. It's a pretty complex calculation if you try and factor things like not blocking minion attacks, etc.  The real "crossover point" is probably somewhere in the neighborhood of having faced 9-10 attacks each.  Shield should block more attacks given that it can't block crits, can't block fort/will attacks, and sometimes will not get used at all.   You completely skipped over the math where I compared it to shield of faith.  I perceive that your issue here is the "sureness" of shield.  Something about it working automatically seems to really offend you because in the grand scheme of things it's simply not going to outperform second chance at damage reduction it's just going to work 100% of the time the 15% of the time it works.  Perhaps it's you that's lost sight of the big picture.Agreed, shield lingers until it gets an attack that fits its window of opportunity and then is deployed but what if the hit is by a minion?  Something relatively weak early in the combat? Frequently shield is not used (I never use it on minions for example)not quite, I think if you scroll back the original percentages were mine. I guesstimated 75% instead of using your 73% and came up with 15%, I later corrected it to 14.6% to match your numbers so that we would be discussing apples and apples and you wouldn't take us on a tangent disputing the numbers. LMAO, are you seeing that you're still totally incorrect in your math?  My numbers were in no way limited to one and only one attack, they just talked about the specific chance of blocking damage on an attack.   You're still not accounting for numerous problems with your examples. Here are a list of questions/points you haven't answered/accounted for yet.First - if we use shield in the manner you suggest, it is indeed totally expended on the first use.  This decreases the usefulness to about 1/3 so instead of 14.6% we're looking at 4.9% as compared to second chances 50%. Do you understand this?Second - you haven't accounted for the weakest attacks being in the 73% that shield is viable for.  How much does this devalue shield?Third -  you haven't accounted for the value of 95% chance of blocking a crit. How powerful is this?Fourth -  you haven't accounted for combats where shield can't be used at all because of the variables involved.   only because your math is so terrible.  Let me know when you're in an epic combat and shield blocks almost 30% of all the damage the pc receives on every single attack.  I didn't discount reflex attacks, this is another horrible example.  Second chance blocks reflex attacks too, so it's already accounted for in both powers.  The only thing being discounted is that second chance can block ANY attack and shield is far more likely to only be useful against "simple attacks" and by simple I mean straight damage with no lasting effects. I honestly can't wait for your reply.  I'm wondering if you'll answer the 4 questions, account for the fact other 2nd level utilities are already better than best case shield at reducing damage, or own the error in your math with regard to multiple attacks.</blockquote>

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