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Message: <blockquote data-quote="Elric" data-source="post: 4693982" data-attributes="member: 1139">No.  He is calculating the chance that Shield doesn’t work on each attack, so the chance it doesn’t work on one attack squared is the chance it doesn’t work on both attacks.  If it does work, you decrease the damage by one attack’s worth.  This is also wrong.  He’s doing a similar calculation to that in my post above, but it’s a little less accurate in a way that works in Shield's favor because it’s essentially assuming that of n attacks, exactly half will hit (rather than taking the probability distribution of those attacks into account).It should all be pretty clear if you look at my post above.You have misunderstood the calculation he was doing.This wouldn’t be hard to answer, if you simply assumed no one would use Shield on minion attacks and lowered the percentage of attacks that Shield affects accordingly.See my post above, where I do account for this.  If you are targeted by 8 attacks with a 50% chance to hit (as in my example above), and crits=1.5 regular hits, optimal use of Second Chance reserving it for crits initially makes it block 13% more damage than a myopic “use Second Chance on the first hit” strategy.The assumption that some % of attacks will target AC/Reflex is somewhat more favorable to Shield than the idea that in some combats there won’t be many enemies even targeting these defenses (and in others lots of enemies will target these defenses), but this effect is probably minor in the scheme of things.  Otherwise, this is pretty much covered.  See my post above.</blockquote>

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