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Message: <blockquote data-quote="KarinsDad" data-source="post: 4694792" data-attributes="member: 2011">Actually, I did understand. I just ignored the "number of attacks" part of it because number of attacks is totally irrelevent to this discussion.I hope we can agree at least upon that.It is not the number of attacks, it's the number of successful attacks. Neither Shield or Second Chance can be used on an unsuccessful attack since they trigger on hits.Talking about non-successful attacks muddies the water. I'm trying to lean the discussion (and the math) into what is relevant to the powers, not what is irrelevant to the powers.Except when it comes to discussing strategy, we are talking people, not math. There is no optimally that works every time. Everyone will make mistakes, the situations will call for different strategies, some people using it early, some people using it not at all.There is no one equation that states that optimal useage of it that works for all encounters. The best we can do is some form of rule of thumb preferred strategy such as not using it on the first one or two non-critical hits or so, but using it early enough so that it at least gets used. That requires guesswork and intuition on the part of the player to gain anything.You said it yourself "the calculation assumes that you know the number of attacks that will be directed against PC". People don't know that. People have to guess. And combat is fluid such that a different PC can become the focus of more attacks.If the player avoids early Second Chance in order to use it on a critical, it takes one "used it on a critical" to make up for one "failed to use it during the encounter, but did get hit in that encounter". Actually, it is slightly worse than that.Take the first creature in the MM. It does 2D8+8 damage.17 average points on a hit, 24 on a critical.The average number of points saved by using it on a critical over using it on a normal attack is 7 points (24-17). Since it is at least used in either case (where it averages 8.85 damage), the only savings is the difference between a normal hit and a critical hit or 7 points.But, if it is never used and could have been used on a normal hit, it would have saved 8.15 points (17-8.85).So, NOT using the Second Chance at all in an encounter is more of a loss than the gain of using Second Chance for a critical in an encounter.And that's true as long as the PC is hit during the encounter and he uses Second Chance during the encounter. If he is hit and never uses it, the expected gain evaporates and becomes a loss (percentage-wise, not necessarily in reality because the Second Chance could do nothing or even increase the damage).For Shield, there is no doubt. Shield will never stop a critical. It should nearly always be used as early as possible during what appears to be a serious attack. Sure, there will be situations where waiting was better in hindsight, but hindsight is not something people have ahead of time.For Second Chance, we are mostly in agreement here. One should wait some for a critical. I just think that one has to be a bit cautious and not wait too long, otherwise he runs the risk of not using it at all or of causing other problems for the party.The PC Wizard could throw out a Fireball and suddenly instead of 4 opponents, there is only 1 and the PC Halfling Rogue will not use his Second Chance. The player of the PC Cleric asks "Why did you not use your Second Chance? I healed you because you got bloodied and then later on had to use a potion to get up the Fighter because I did not have another Healing Word."This type of stuff happens. It's not just about the math, there are a lot of variables in it.This is not just an optimal usage situation, it's also about resources and other "in combat" advantages. If the Halfling PC uses Second Chance, he might use one less healing surge. Or he might stay in melee longer and give flank longer. Or the Cleric might not have to heal him. Or the ongoing effect on him takes 2 more rounds to make him unconscious.But the bottom line is that each situation is unique and saving Second Chance for the optimal point in time can easily backfire.A more prudent strategy is to use Second Chance somewhat in the middle of each encounter (as soon as one foe in four is down or possibly when two foes are bloodied for example) so that the Halfling does not screw up the situation. Having the Cleric not have to focus on the Halfling is also a good thing.APC will now talk about my bad assumptions, etc. zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzI'm not quite sure why he re-opened this 6 months old thread just to disagree with everyone, regardless of what they write. <img src="http://www.enworld.org/forum/images/smilies/laugh.png"  class="smilie" loading="lazy" alt=":lol:" title="Laughing    :lol:" data-shortname=":lol:" /></blockquote>

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