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Message: <blockquote data-quote="Ydars" data-source="post: 4137471" data-attributes="member: 62992">The fact is, even if people at Hasbro, WoTC or anywhere else THINK they have numbers that show them losing money because of OGL, this is likely based on a facile analysis (see below)For example, just because Z number of people bought True 20 does not mean that WoTCs sales are down Z x (cost of True 20) dollars because;a) many people buying True 20 will ALSO buy the PHB and other WoTC products (in fact MOST will) because for many gamers, MONEY is not the limiting factor; they will find money to buy ALL the products they find interesting.b) Many gamers will CONTINUE playing d20 games that are compatable with WoTC products BECAUSE of True 20 etc.Without OGL, two things are much more likely to happen;1) D&D regulars get stale and tired of D&D because they are constantly getting one companies "take" on things and because of WoTC decisions on the direction of worlds (e.g. the PoL makeover of FR)2) they LEAVE off playing D&D, and having no d20 games to go to, opt to either LEAVE RPGs completely or buy a competitors products that offer NO value to WoTC whatever as they are incompatible.This fractures the market and makes it unsustainable. If you think Ryan Darcey's analysis is dated, I would say think again; in the age of the Paizo/4E split, OGL could be more important than at any time in the past.I don't think you can judge the importance of 3rd parties based on their PAST market share. I suspect Paizo just increased their share by a HUGE margin because of their decision to stick with 3.5/3.75.If WoTC don't announce a GSL then ALL the other 3PPs will do the same (or go out of business) and this will siphon off MORE gamers.And I don't care what market analysis WoTC has to estimate the impact this will have on their sales; they CANNOT know for sure. Market research is a pseudo-science and very imperfect.</blockquote>

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