Menu
News
All News
Dungeons & Dragons
Level Up: Advanced 5th Edition
Pathfinder
Starfinder
Warhammer
2d20 System
Year Zero Engine
Industry News
Reviews
Dragon Reflections
White Dwarf Reflections
Columns
Weekly Digests
Weekly News Digest
Freebies, Sales & Bundles
RPG Print News
RPG Crowdfunding News
Game Content
ENterplanetary DimENsions
Mythological Figures
Opinion
Worlds of Design
Peregrine's Nest
RPG Evolution
Other Columns
From the Freelancing Frontline
Monster ENcyclopedia
WotC/TSR Alumni Look Back
4 Hours w/RSD (Ryan Dancey)
The Road to 3E (Jonathan Tweet)
Greenwood's Realms (Ed Greenwood)
Drawmij's TSR (Jim Ward)
Community
Forums & Topics
Forum List
Latest Posts
Forum list
*Dungeons & Dragons
Level Up: Advanced 5th Edition
D&D Older Editions, OSR, & D&D Variants
*TTRPGs General
*Pathfinder & Starfinder
EN Publishing
*Geek Talk & Media
Search forums
Chat/Discord
Resources
Wiki
Pages
Latest activity
Media
New media
New comments
Search media
Downloads
Latest reviews
Search resources
EN Publishing
Store
EN5ider
Adventures in ZEITGEIST
Awfully Cheerful Engine
What's OLD is NEW
Judge Dredd & The Worlds Of 2000AD
War of the Burning Sky
Level Up: Advanced 5E
Events & Releases
Upcoming Events
Private Events
Featured Events
Socials!
EN Publishing
Twitter
BlueSky
Facebook
Instagram
EN World
BlueSky
YouTube
Facebook
Twitter
Twitch
Podcast
Features
Top 5 RPGs Compiled Charts 2004-Present
Adventure Game Industry Market Research Summary (RPGs) V1.0
Ryan Dancey: Acquiring TSR
Q&A With Gary Gygax
D&D Rules FAQs
TSR, WotC, & Paizo: A Comparative History
D&D Pronunciation Guide
Million Dollar TTRPG Kickstarters
Tabletop RPG Podcast Hall of Fame
Eric Noah's Unofficial D&D 3rd Edition News
D&D in the Mainstream
D&D & RPG History
About Morrus
Log in
Register
What's new
Search
Search
Search titles only
By:
Forums & Topics
Forum List
Latest Posts
Forum list
*Dungeons & Dragons
Level Up: Advanced 5th Edition
D&D Older Editions, OSR, & D&D Variants
*TTRPGs General
*Pathfinder & Starfinder
EN Publishing
*Geek Talk & Media
Search forums
Chat/Discord
Menu
Log in
Register
Install the app
Install
Upgrade your account to a Community Supporter account and remove most of the site ads.
Community
General Tabletop Discussion
*Pathfinder & Starfinder
It's a Wand! It's a Crossbow Bolt! It's a Floor Wax!
JavaScript is disabled. For a better experience, please enable JavaScript in your browser before proceeding.
You are using an out of date browser. It may not display this or other websites correctly.
You should upgrade or use an
alternative browser
.
Reply to thread
Message
<blockquote data-quote="Coredump" data-source="post: 2636492" data-attributes="member: 6939"><p>You are right. I showed why it does not follow simply adding them, and babomb has been able to use the brute force method to get a more accurate median.</p><p></p><p></p><p>The mean *is* going to be 50, that is a done deal. (Took me by surprise...but kind of cool.) The discussion has now moved to the median, which will help answer the other part of your question.</p><p></p><p>Babomb says the (new) median is about 44 (This is a bit higher than I would have guessed, but seems reasonable, and he did do the work.) And the mean is 50.</p><p>So, in general, you will get half of the wands having 44 or fewer charges, and half having 45 or more.</p><p>The vast majority of these will end up between 35 and 80. But to give you more detailed info, will take a lot more work. Also, it is kind of irrelevant. The variance is (likely) large enough that you cannot get a much better prediction for only a few wands.</p><p></p><p>I think you have this a bit backwards. I would counsel against raising the median above 50. In fact, the original 20-12-10-8 seems about perfect. It is hard to have a 'very bad' wand experience, but almost all of them will be above 50, and some way above.</p><p></p><p>Not quite. The odds *are* exactly even with the 20-12-10-8 method; that means that the PC's will eventually come out....exactly even. By adding a D6 and D4, that means that the PCs will eventually come out...20% ahead. (60 charges per wand.)</p><p>20-12-10-8 means that most will be in the 40-50 range, some a little lower, some a lot higher, eventually balancing out to 50.</p><p>20-12-10-8-6-4 means that most will be in the 50-60 range, some a little lower, some a lot higher, eventually balancing out to 60.</p><p></p><p>The original method makes it a bit of a gamble, but still a very fair gamble. The second method makes it a no-brainer, and the PC's will almost always come out ahead, and on average quite a bit ahead.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Coredump, post: 2636492, member: 6939"] You are right. I showed why it does not follow simply adding them, and babomb has been able to use the brute force method to get a more accurate median. The mean *is* going to be 50, that is a done deal. (Took me by surprise...but kind of cool.) The discussion has now moved to the median, which will help answer the other part of your question. Babomb says the (new) median is about 44 (This is a bit higher than I would have guessed, but seems reasonable, and he did do the work.) And the mean is 50. So, in general, you will get half of the wands having 44 or fewer charges, and half having 45 or more. The vast majority of these will end up between 35 and 80. But to give you more detailed info, will take a lot more work. Also, it is kind of irrelevant. The variance is (likely) large enough that you cannot get a much better prediction for only a few wands. I think you have this a bit backwards. I would counsel against raising the median above 50. In fact, the original 20-12-10-8 seems about perfect. It is hard to have a 'very bad' wand experience, but almost all of them will be above 50, and some way above. Not quite. The odds *are* exactly even with the 20-12-10-8 method; that means that the PC's will eventually come out....exactly even. By adding a D6 and D4, that means that the PCs will eventually come out...20% ahead. (60 charges per wand.) 20-12-10-8 means that most will be in the 40-50 range, some a little lower, some a lot higher, eventually balancing out to 50. 20-12-10-8-6-4 means that most will be in the 50-60 range, some a little lower, some a lot higher, eventually balancing out to 60. The original method makes it a bit of a gamble, but still a very fair gamble. The second method makes it a no-brainer, and the PC's will almost always come out ahead, and on average quite a bit ahead. [/QUOTE]
Insert quotes…
Verification
Post reply
Community
General Tabletop Discussion
*Pathfinder & Starfinder
It's a Wand! It's a Crossbow Bolt! It's a Floor Wax!
Top