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<blockquote data-quote="Abstruse" data-source="post: 8417718" data-attributes="member: 6669048"><p>KickTraq has two prediction models, &quot;Trending&quot; and &quot;Projection&quot;. To the best I can figure out, Trending just takes the average daily pledge and multiplies it by the days left in the campaign. So right now, it's going to show whatever the current total is times 32. The typically large first-day pledges pretty much always throw those numbers out of whack so they're not even remotely accurate for prediction. The Projection uses some sort of algorithm that analyzes the project's daily pledges, number of pledges, average backer level, and so on to come up with a more realistic range. Because it needs more data, it takes a good week or two before that shows up. Of course, this is just me trying to reverse-engineer based on observation how it works because Kicktraq doesn't say anywhere I've been able to find, but the Trending is pretty obvious because you can just grab any first day campaign and do the math yourself (multiply the current pledge level by the total days in the campaign and you'll get the Trending total).</p></blockquote><p></p>

[QUOTE="Abstruse, post: 8417718, member: 6669048"] KickTraq has two prediction models, "Trending" and "Projection". To the best I can figure out, Trending just takes the average daily pledge and multiplies it by the days left in the campaign. So right now, it's going to show whatever the current total is times 32. The typically large first-day pledges pretty much always throw those numbers out of whack so they're not even remotely accurate for prediction. The Projection uses some sort of algorithm that analyzes the project's daily pledges, number of pledges, average backer level, and so on to come up with a more realistic range. Because it needs more data, it takes a good week or two before that shows up. Of course, this is just me trying to reverse-engineer based on observation how it works because Kicktraq doesn't say anywhere I've been able to find, but the Trending is pretty obvious because you can just grab any first day campaign and do the math yourself (multiply the current pledge level by the total days in the campaign and you'll get the Trending total). [/QUOTE]

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