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Message: <blockquote data-quote="Umbran" data-source="post: 9703759" data-attributes="member: 177">And that would mean something if they were continuing to run 18-month old AIs, but they aren't.  His estimates will also be 18-months and more behind on the computational needs, too.Increases in efficiency almost never result in reduction of power use - they typically lead to increase in use, because now use is cheaper!  LED lightbulbs (and fluorescents before them) are more efficient than incandescent - their rollout meant that people (including businesses) lit more places more brightly, and left the lights on longer because they felt they could afford it.So, if it became cheaper per computing operation, or needed fewer operations, you can be quite sure that the response was, 'Well, then use even more operations!"  The basic limit will be a monetary one - if they have a budget of $100 million, they will spend all of it, and buy the maximum number of machoflops they can get for it.It is unlikely to stay that way in the US, due to policy change.</blockquote>