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Message: <blockquote data-quote="Morrus" data-source="post: 9683988" data-attributes="member: 1">These graphs are kind of interesting. I'm not sure how useful they are.I took the data from all of EN Publishing's  Kickstarters where we noted the number of pre-launch followers (we keep data on all our crowdfunders, but it was only recently we started collecting that particular figure--only 12 of our nearly 60 crowdfunders). I wanted to see if there was a way to predict the campaign's success based on that figure.A caveat: every Kickstarter is different, and a higher-priced one will net a larger amount per backer than a lower prices one (nearly all the crowdfunders in the million dollar crowdfunder club have an average pledge level in excess of $100). Therefore I've produced two graphs, one for total $, and the other for backer count. However, many of our crowdfunders are priced similarly, as most of these are a hardcover book (we also do a ton of small softcover campaigns, which I've left out of the data for that reason--they're just too different to the hardcovers in terms of both price point and length of crowdfunding campaign). These campaigns have an average pledge level of around $50.Our projects are priced in GBP, so I've used today's conversion rate to turn it into USD. Obviously the conversion rate changes.Nevertheless, even based on this scant data and with that caveat in mind, there does seem to be a correlation. We need about 1,000 pre-launch followers for a $100K campaign, 2,000 pre-launch followers for a $175K campaign, and 6,000+ pre-launch in order to approach that million dollar mark.What's also interesting is the near 1:1 correlation between pre-launch backers and final backers. The interesting part is that they're not all the same people--we get a conversion rate of 20%-30% on our Kickstarters, so despite the final numbers being consistently similar, 70% of the final backers were apparently not pre-launch followers. But if you know what your average pledge level will likely be, and the number of backers you'll likely get, you can make a good guess at your final funding total.Anyway, take these graphs for what you will! They may be useful or interesting or they may be neither. But here they are anyway![ATTACH=full]408442[/ATTACH] [ATTACH=full]408443[/ATTACH] </blockquote>

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