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Let's Spitball a Hypothetical Situation---WOTC Discontinues D&D--What Happens?
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<blockquote data-quote="AtomicPope" data-source="post: 4411284" data-attributes="member: 64790"><p>Took the words right out of my mouth.</p><p> </p><p> </p><p>People seem to forget that we're living in the information age where education is free (public libraries and teh intarwebs). The proliferation of skills inherently breaks monopolies. As a result, it becomes increasingly difficult for a single source to maintain market dominance, particularly if the dominance is based solely on immaterial goods such as a game mechanic. Toffler had correctly theorized that the decentralization of information (knowledge) as a tool of power will create prosumers and fragment mass production. As gamers we're seeing this now in the form of 3rd party, PDF RPG publishing. Small companies that are able to create products that have little to no shelf space or overstock.</p><p> </p><p>However, industry leaders are not without options. Borders Books is making a move to become the first industry leader in self-publishing and print-on-demand to compensate. They hope to combat the issue by reducing overstock entirely, thus reducing the cost considerably. By virtually eliminating wasteful spending through print-on-demand start up costs will decrease, theoretically lowering the product cost allowing for greater profit by volume. Whether or not this works remains to be seen.</p><p> </p><p>With regards to D&D and WotC I see no difference. I don't consider 3rd party Publishers as a valid measure to the success of a product. Third party publishers merely piggy-back. If they're capable of creating a competative product they would have done so long ago. Look at White Wolf and 2e. Second Edition was the death rattle of D&D, and there exists a massive amounts of statistical information to back it - by WotC. What happened? Second Edition fragmented the class system with Kits and Specialist Wizards. All classes became far more generic, losing class features (no more Monks, Barbarians, Thief Acrobats, Cavaliers, Illusionists). They also mass produced the "Complete Garbage" series. So what happened?</p><p> </p><p>The RPG industry boomed as TSR failed. White Wolf spear headed an innovation in roleplaying with the story teller system. It appealed to new and old gamers alike. Champions, GURPS, WHFRP, and Palladium bloomed in the wake of D&D. It's basic economics. If a market exists and products can be distributed, the audience will purchase. The only thing standing in the way of an RPG boom was the sluggish AD&D juggernaut. D&D couldn't afford television ads anymore. When they can't market as strongly anymore the other companies won't get stone-walled.</p><p> </p><p>We're seeing a backlash today. What happens to the future of D&D because of 4th edition remains to be seen. It doesn't look nearly as grim as many have forecasted based on initial online sales alone. Should WotC create another D&D debacle the RPG community will survive. In fact, as many have already pointed out, it could experience another renaissance. Will 3pp pick up the ball that WotC dropped? I don't think so. If they could they would have already. Most likely we'll see another new innovator, or an already major RPG company (such as White Wolf) capture the lion's share of the community.</p><p> </p><p>But anything can happen because gamers are impulse spenders. RPG could pejorate into a cosplay card game that combines the worst elements of LARP and competative, collective card gaming. To be honest, nothing would surprise me.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="AtomicPope, post: 4411284, member: 64790"] Took the words right out of my mouth. People seem to forget that we're living in the information age where education is free (public libraries and teh intarwebs). The proliferation of skills inherently breaks monopolies. As a result, it becomes increasingly difficult for a single source to maintain market dominance, particularly if the dominance is based solely on immaterial goods such as a game mechanic. Toffler had correctly theorized that the decentralization of information (knowledge) as a tool of power will create prosumers and fragment mass production. As gamers we're seeing this now in the form of 3rd party, PDF RPG publishing. Small companies that are able to create products that have little to no shelf space or overstock. However, industry leaders are not without options. Borders Books is making a move to become the first industry leader in self-publishing and print-on-demand to compensate. They hope to combat the issue by reducing overstock entirely, thus reducing the cost considerably. By virtually eliminating wasteful spending through print-on-demand start up costs will decrease, theoretically lowering the product cost allowing for greater profit by volume. Whether or not this works remains to be seen. With regards to D&D and WotC I see no difference. I don't consider 3rd party Publishers as a valid measure to the success of a product. Third party publishers merely piggy-back. If they're capable of creating a competative product they would have done so long ago. Look at White Wolf and 2e. Second Edition was the death rattle of D&D, and there exists a massive amounts of statistical information to back it - by WotC. What happened? Second Edition fragmented the class system with Kits and Specialist Wizards. All classes became far more generic, losing class features (no more Monks, Barbarians, Thief Acrobats, Cavaliers, Illusionists). They also mass produced the "Complete Garbage" series. So what happened? The RPG industry boomed as TSR failed. White Wolf spear headed an innovation in roleplaying with the story teller system. It appealed to new and old gamers alike. Champions, GURPS, WHFRP, and Palladium bloomed in the wake of D&D. It's basic economics. If a market exists and products can be distributed, the audience will purchase. The only thing standing in the way of an RPG boom was the sluggish AD&D juggernaut. D&D couldn't afford television ads anymore. When they can't market as strongly anymore the other companies won't get stone-walled. We're seeing a backlash today. What happens to the future of D&D because of 4th edition remains to be seen. It doesn't look nearly as grim as many have forecasted based on initial online sales alone. Should WotC create another D&D debacle the RPG community will survive. In fact, as many have already pointed out, it could experience another renaissance. Will 3pp pick up the ball that WotC dropped? I don't think so. If they could they would have already. Most likely we'll see another new innovator, or an already major RPG company (such as White Wolf) capture the lion's share of the community. But anything can happen because gamers are impulse spenders. RPG could pejorate into a cosplay card game that combines the worst elements of LARP and competative, collective card gaming. To be honest, nothing would surprise me. [/QUOTE]
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Let's Spitball a Hypothetical Situation---WOTC Discontinues D&D--What Happens?
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