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Message: <blockquote data-quote="pemerton" data-source="post: 5731172" data-attributes="member: 42582">[MENTION=11300]Herremann the Wise[/MENTION] - attached are some probability charts for BW (in Word, but calculated in Access) which you might find helpful. (I was inspired to make them after wondering about dice numbers beyond those listed in the tables in the Monster Burner). The values are rounded to two places, so some of the 1.00 entries are actually 0.99+ lielihoods (ie near-certainty rather than literal certainty).The charts show that for anyone who can't do intuitive combinatorical calculations, there is no way to grasp the mathematical implications of adding an obstacle. For example, for a 4D ability, adding +1 Ob can drop the likelihood from 0.94 to 0.69 (Ob 1 to Ob 2), from 0.69 to 0.31 (Ob 2 to Ob 3), or from 0.31 to 0.06 (Ob 3 to Ob 4). (Obviously, an increase to Ob 5 makes the task impossible!)For a 5D ability, the same increases in obstacle produce decreases in likelihood from 0.97 to 0.81, from 0.97 to 0.50, from 0.50 to 0.19, and from 0.19 to 0.03 (ie with 5D, an Ob 5 task is practically impossible also).Adding a die is equally opaque - going from 4D to 5D changes the odds from 0.94 to 0.97 vs Ob 1 (little practical difference), from 0.69 to 0.81 vs Ob 2, from 0.31 to 0.50 vs Ob 3, from 0.06 to 0.19 vs Ob 4 (all of which are fairly meaningful), but then leaves an Ob 5 task practically impossible.I think that BW has two features that tray to make this lack of transparency less important than it would be (for example) in 3E play. First, the advancement rules mean that players will often be more concerned about the category of difficulty (routine, difficult or challenging) rather than the likelihood of success. Second, the rules/guidelines for adjudicating failure in relation to intent and task mean that succeeding or failing is in some respects less crucial in BW than in a more traditional RPG.I think that the 4e designers have tried for something similar to this second point with skill challenges, which - as is well known - are not transparent in their maths either.</blockquote>

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